David Attenborough & Charlie Veron: carbon dioxide may soon make coral reefs extinct

Posted on July 6, 2009 by ovehblog

“Increasingly acidic oceans and warming water temperatures due to carbon dioxide emissions could kill off the world’s ocean reefs by the end of this century, scientists warned on Monday.

The experts told a meeting in London the predicted pace of emissions means a level of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will be reached by 2050, putting corals on a path to extinction in the following decades.

The two dozen coral reef specialists and climate change exerts represented universities, government research offices and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” – Reuters, 6th July 2009

David Attenborough joined scientists today to warn that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is already above the level which condemns coral reefs to extinction, with catastrophic effects for the oceans and the people who depend upon them.

Attenborough said the world had a “moral responsibility” to save corals. The naturalist was speaking at the Royal Society in London, following a meeting of marine biologists.

“A coral reef is the canary in the cage as far as the oceans are concerned,” said Attenborough. “They are the places where the damage is most easily and quickly seen. It is more difficult for us to see what is happening in, for example, the deep ocean or the central expanses of ocean.” – The Guardian, 6th July 2009

Charlie Veron, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, told The Times: “There is no way out, no loopholes. The Great Barrier Reef will be over within 20 years or so.”

Once carbon dioxide had hit the levels predicted for between 2030 and 2060, all coral reefs were doomed to extinction, he said. “They would be the world’s first global ecosystem to collapse. I have the backing of every coral reef scientist, every research organisation. I’ve spoken to them all. This is critical. This is reality.” – The Times, 7th July 2009

“The kitchen is on fire and it’s spreading around the house,” Alex Rogers of the Zoological Society of London and the International Program on the State of the Ocean, said in a statement.

“If we act quickly and decisively we may be able to put it out before the damage becomes irreversible.” – The US Daily, 7th July 2009

The meeting was held to identify tipping points for corals and to expose the issues raised by the plight of coral reefs. A statement detailing these concerns will be submitted to the UN FCCC process currently underway.

Until now, world leaders negotiating emissions reductions have not taken the ocean into serious account, but with so much at risk, the oceans can no longer be ignored.

Now, there is every reason to believe that the oceans may in fact be the most vulnerable sector of our planet to climate change – with dire consequences for us all. – Science Daily, July 2009

Climate change responsible for shrinking sheep

Posted on July 6, 2009 by ovehblog

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To be honest, I struggled to believe the headline news: “Climate change is shrinking sheep” – surely April fools day was over 3 months ago? Reading on, the story becomes more intriguing… Apparently, researchers have conducted detailed measurements on the body weights of a population of Soay sheep on the island of Herta off of the Scottish coastline since 1986. Soay sheep are an intriguing bunch, first brought to the island in 1936 and remaining isolated since, making a perfect study subject for investigating the effects of environmental change on physical characteristics. Analysis of these measurements revealed that not only is the population of sheep putting on less body mass (an average decline of 5% over the past 24 years), but are also affected by a decrease in the length of their hind legs, suggesting that the Soay population really is declining in size, rather than a decline in body condition.

Mean annual August weights of Soay sheep showing a pattern of decline across all age catagories

So what factors are driving this apparent phenotypic change over such short time scales? Apparently the answer isn’t evolution: selective pressures explained little of the observed pattern, instead environmental change (in this case the warming related to the North Atlantic oscillation index) is a more likely explanation:

In the past, Hirta’s sheep gorged on grass during their first summer, the team notes, piling on the weight in order to make it through the island’s typically harsh winters. But over the past quarter-century, Hirta has had unusually short and mild winters. As a result, Ozgul and colleagues propose, grass has become available for more months of the year, meaning the Soay sheep do not have to bulk up as much. In addition, Hirta’s harsh winters used to kill small ewes born to young mothers. But now these small ewes survive–and because of their low birth weight, they never get as big as normal sheep. That drives down the average size of the entire population, the team reports. (Read More)

Short-term declines in global temperature predicted by GCMs

Posted on July 5, 2009 by ovehblog

One of the most common climate change skeptic arguments against AGW is that short-term declines in globally averaged temperature completely refute arguments about the occurrence and causes of global warming. A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (Easterling and Wehner 2009) argues that short term periods of no-trend or even cooling (nested within longer term warming) are in fact predicted by Global Climate Models.

Abstract: Numerous websites, blogs and articles in the media have claimed that the climate is no longer warming, and is now cooling. Here we show that periods of no trend or even cooling of the globally averaged surface air temperature are found in the last 34 years of the observed record, and in climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st century forced with increasing greenhouse gases. We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer-term warming.

Globally averaged surface air temperature

The reality of the climate system is that, due to natural climate variability, it is entirely possible to have a period as long as a decade or two of ‘‘cooling’’ superimposed on the longer-term warming trend due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Climate scientists pay little attention to these short-term fluctuations as the short term ‘‘cooling trends’’ mentioned above are statistically insignificant and fitting trends to such short periods is not very meaningful in the context of long-term climate change. On the other hand segments of the general public do pay attention to these fluctuations.

It is easy to ‘‘cherry pick’’ a period to reinforce a point of view, but this notion begs the question, what would happen to the current concerns about climate change if we do have a sustained period where the climate appears to be cooling even when, in the end, the longer term trend is warming?

One realization of the globally averaged surface air temperature from the ECHAM5 coupled climate model forced with the SRES A2 greenhouse gas increase scenario (a business as usual scenario, that assumes little reduction in anthropogenic emissions resulting in large greenhouse gas concentrations by the end of the 21st century.

We highlight two periods in 2001–2010 and 2016–2031 [see bottom figure above]. Both of these periods show a small, statistically insignificant negative trend based on a simple least-squares trend line and there are other periods, such as the last seven years of this simulation, that show a similar lack of trend. This behavior occurs without any simulated volcanic eruptions or solar variability (natural forcing) that could result in a widespread cooling for some period of years and thus is presumed entirely due to natural internal variability. Climate models are often criticized for producing a more or less monotonic-type response to anthropogenic forcing in 21st century simulations. Part of this may be due to the lack of volcanic and solar forcing I the SRES scenarios of anthropogenic forcing increase for the 21st century and part could be due to the fact that largescale oscillatory climate features, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation are not well simulated. However, even considering these criticisms, it is clear that the models can and do produce sustained multi-year periods of ‘‘cooling’’ embedded within the longer-term warming produced in the 21st century simulations.

Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that the natural variability of the real climate system can and likely will produce multi-year periods of sustained ‘‘cooling’’ or at least periods with no real trend even in the presence of long-term anthropogenic forced warming. Claims that global warming is not occurring that are derivedfrom a cooling observed over such short time periods ignore this natural variability and are misleading.

Citation

Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009), Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810

Interview with NOAA head Jane Lubchenco about the state of the oceans

Posted on June 29, 2009 by ovehblog

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Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives an update on the state of the oceans. She discusses how climate change is affecting ocean ecosystems including coral reefs and what the administration plans to do about overfishing. Originally broadcasted on June 8, 2009 on the nationally syndicated Diane Rehm show (WAMU, NPR). Click below for a 20 min. clip of the audio interview.

[audio:https://climateshifts.org/media/Lubchenco1.mp3]

Go here to listen to the entire interview.

Read a related post about Dr. Lubchenco’s assignment of head of NOAA here.

Climate change 101

Posted on June 26, 2009 by ovehblog

Fig_1_global_energy_balance Having trouble keeping all those greenhouse gases straight? Looking for some reliable information and understandable graphics on anthropogenic climate change? A good place is the Climate Change Collection in the Encyclopedia of Earth.

The collection includes:

• A number of articles on topics like 21st century climate change scenarios, Mauna Loa curve, a lbedo, h istory of climate change and variability, and Methane

• FAQs like; What factors determine the earth’s climate? What is the greenhouse effect? and What is radiative forcing?

• Biographies of influential climate change scientists (primarily climatologists)

The EoE is a new electronic reference about the Earth, its natural environments, and their interaction with society. TheEncyclopedia is a free, fully searchable collection of articles written by scholars, professionals, educators, and experts who collaborate and review each other’s work. The articles are written in non-technical language and will be useful to students, educators, scholars, professionals, as well as to the general public.

Two other good sources of information are Stephen Schneider’s web site and the RealClimate web site.

HFC emissions and impact on climate projected to grow much faster than expected

Posted on June 23, 2009 by ovehblog

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A new article in PNAS (Velders et al 2009) argues that HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) emissions will grow at a surprising rate, becoming a substantial greenhouse gas later this century. HFCs were developed as a replacement for ozone damaging CFCs. Production and release of HFCs have grown quickly since the 1995 ban on CFCs.

From the abstract – The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions…Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9–19% (CO2-eq. basis) of projected global CO2 emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6–13 years of CO2 emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28–45% compared with projected CO2 emissions in a 450-ppm CO2stabilization scenario.

CFC

Read and download the article in PNAS here

Read a related post on Andrew Revkins Dot Earth blog here

US Congress to consider major climate change bill

Posted on June 23, 2009 by ovehblog

From Politico: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will roll the dice on a top priority this week, bringing a contentious climate change bill to the floor despite strong misgivings from her rank-and-file and an outspoken chairman who remains a major impediment. Read the full story here

From the NYT: House Democratic leaders late last night released a revamped, 1,201-page energy and global warming bill clearing the way for floor debate Friday even though it remains uncertain if they will have the votes to pass it…Perhaps the biggest modification in the new version involves language sought by the nation’s rural electric cooperatives that gives the country’s smallest power utilities a free 0.5 percent slice of the cap-and-trade program’s valuable emission allowances…Democrats are still not done wheeling and dealing as they gear up for a floor debate, with critical issues still unresolved on everything from biofuels to which federal agency — U.S. EPA or the Agriculture Department — will have lead oversight of the offset program that would pay for environmentally friendly land management practices. Read the full NYT article here.

One thing I like about the draft bill is it’s realist view of the value of biofuels. Accurately accounting for the true carbon footprint of biofuels has become a major sticking point for the bill, with farm state representatives arguing for restricting the EPAs authority:

From the NYT – the bill as posted does not restrict EPA’s authority to weigh “indirect” emissions from land-use changes when calculating the carbon footprint of biofuels. The issue is important because under a 2007 expansion of the renewable fuels standard, biofuels must have, to varying degrees, lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels.

NGOs are cautiously supportive of the bill. Lou Leonard, Director of U.S. Climate Policy for World Wildlife Fund, said “Passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act through the Energy and Commerce Committee today marks a watershed moment in the decades-long battle to protect our planet from dangerous climate change and all of the economic, environmental and national security vulnerabilities it presents.” but noted ” I remain concerned that the legislation falls far short of what is needed for international clean technology cooperation and international adaptation assistance. Unless strengthened, this bill could undermine the President’s ability to secure an effective international agreement during climate negotiations in Copenhagen this fall. See the full WWF statement on the bill here

Download the bill as a PDF here

UPDATE: Democrats have reached an agreement with farm state republicans, setting the stage for a vote on the bill, expected Friday. Read the full story here

NOAA report on climate change impacts in the US released

Posted on June 19, 2009 by ovehblog

OCP-09frontwindow

Earlier this week, the Obama administration released a new summary report described as “a new science report representing a consensus of 13 agencies developed over a year and half and focused on potential climate change impacts on the United States.”

It’s the most comprehensive report to date on the possible impacts of climate change for everyone across America, and begins an important process of redefining the sort of information we need in order to deal with climate change at national and regional scales. Effectively managing our response to a changing climate falls into two general categories:

1) Implementing measures to limit climate change and therefore avoid many of the impacts discussed in the report. These measures must reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and might include increasing our reliance on clean energy, and developing energy efficient technologies

2) Reducing our vulnerability and increasing our resilience to ongoing climate change in pro-active, community-based ways. Examples of this include such measures as developing more climate-sensitive building codes to keep people out of harm’s way, or planting more drought or heat tolerant crops, for example.

Among the main findings are:
• Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life.
• Increased heavy downpours will lead to more flooding, waterborne diseases, negative effects on agriculture, and disruptions to energy, water, and transportation systems.
• Rising water temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coral reefs and the rich ecosystems they support. These and other climate-related impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries.
• Insect infestations and wildfires are already increasing and are projected to increase further in a warming climate.

See the complete key findings here

NOAA, headed by marine biologist Jane Lubchencho, was the lead agency in compiling the report.

“This report stresses that climate change has immediate and local impacts – it literally affects people in their backyards,” said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “In keeping with our goals, the information in it is accessible and useful to everyone from city planners and national legislators to citizens who want to better understand what climate change means to them. This is an issue that clearly affects everyone.”

One thing I really like about the report is that it is written in fairly simple language and makes nice use of images and graphics to illustrate the points and issues. The report has one of the few easy to understand climate change scenario graphs available to the public (above). It also highlights who will be affected and who needs information about climate change;
• farmers making crop and livestock decisions, as growing seasons lengthen, insect management becomes more difficult and droughts become more severe
• local officials thinking about zoning decisions, especially along coastal areas
• public health officials developing ways to lessen the impacts of heat waves throughout the country
• water resource officials considering development plans
• business owners as they consider business and investment decisions

The White House has set up a web site with footage from a press conference about the report, links to powerpoint presentations, the report itself, images and graphs, ect. Lots of resources about climate change impacts in user-friendly formats. Very nice.

Biogeochemists Map Out Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The U.

Posted on June 11, 2009 by ovehblog

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I stumbled across this great mapping system of CO2 emmisions over at Science Daily. Whilst previous estimates of CO2 levels have been calculated per capita in the US, a new map called ‘Vulcan’ created by biogeochemists at Purdue University shows the top local and regional carbon dioxide producers in high resolution.

In the past, CO₂ levels have been calculated based on population, putting the Northeast at the top of the list. Now, a new map called Vulcan reveals for the first time where the top carbon dioxide producers are in the country. The answer surprised Kevin Gurney, Ph.D., a biogeochemist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind.

“There are a lot more emissions in the Southeast than we previously thought, and a lot of that is because it’s not necessarily associated with where people live directly, but actually where industry and activities are,” said Dr. Gurney.

The high-resolution map shows 100 times more detail than ever before and zooms in to show greenhouse gas sources right down to factories, power plants and even roadways. An animated version of Vulcan reveals huge amounts of greenhouse gas gets blown toward the North Atlantic region.

“We’ve never had a map with this much detail and accuracy that everyone can view online,” Dr. Gurney said. (Read more @ Science Daily)

The official website (“The Vulcan Project“) has an amazing Google Earth interface, where you can map the emissions from US power producers, residential and commercial CO2 emissions at 100km2 local scale resolution. Perhaps the most interesting contrast is the maps of residential CO2 emissions when comparing Republican vs Democrat districts. Given the difference in population density between the US and Australia, it’d be interesting to see someone scale this effort to a continental scale, allowing regional comparisons and perspectives on global carbon budgets.

Ocean acidification an ‘underwater catastrophe’

Posted on June 1, 2009 by ovehblog

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‘Climate change is turning our seas acidic, academies warn’ – Reuters News, May 31st 2009

Climate change is turning the oceans more acid in a trend that could endanger everything from clams to coral and be irreversible for thousands of years, national science academies said on Monday.

Seventy academies from around the world urged governments meeting in Bonn for climate talks from June 1-12 to take more account of risks to the oceans in a new U.N. treaty for fighting global warming due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December.

“To avoid substantial damage to ocean ecosystems, deep and rapid reductions of carbon dioxide emissions of at least 50 percent (below 1990 levels) by 2050, and much more thereafter, are needed,” the academies said in a joint statement.

The academies said rising amounts of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas emitted mainly by human use of fossil fuels, were being absorbed by the oceans and making it harder for creatures to build protective body parts.

The shift disrupts ocean chemistry and attacks the “building blocks needed by many marine organisms, such as corals and shellfish, to produce their skeletons, shells and other hard structures”, it said.

On some projections, levels of acidification in 80 percent of Arctic seas would be corrosive to clams that are vital to the food web by 2060, it said.

And “coral reefs may be dissolving globally,” it said, if atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide were to rise to 550 parts per million (ppm) from a current 387 ppm. Corals are home to many species of fish.

“These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversible for many thousands of years, and the biological consequences could last much longer,” it said.

The warning was issued by the Inter-Academy Panel, representing science academies of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe and including those of Australia, Britain, France, Japan and the United States.

Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society, the British science academy, said there may be an “underwater catastrophe”.

“The effects will be seen worldwide, threatening food security, reducing coastal protection and damaging the local economies that may be least able to tolerate it,” he said.

The academies’ statement said that, if current rates of carbon emissions continue until 2050, computer models indicate that “the oceans will be more acidic than they have been for tens of millions of years”.

It also urged actions to reduce other pressures on the oceans, such as pollution and over-fishing.

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