‘Disturbing’ drought report released

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The report says extreme temperature incidents will occur every one to two years. (Getty Images: Ian Waldie, file photo)ABC News, 6th July.

The Federal Government has released a report into the link between drought and climate change, which it says will trigger major review of drought policy.

The report is by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO and is the first of three commissioned by the Government.

The report warns that extreme conditions previously thought to occur once in every 20 to 25 years, could become as frequent as every one or two years.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has told ABC1’s Insiders the report paints a very disturbing picture about the future of droughts in Australia.

"When it comes to exceptional or extreme drought, exceptionally high temperatures, the historical assumption that this occurred once every 20 years has now been revised down to between every one and two years," he said. Continue reading →

“Garnaut report sparks call to arms for at-risk Barrier Reef”

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ABC News, 5th July

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority says it accepts the findings of the Garnaut report on the impact of climate change on the reef.

The report found if carbon emissions are not reduced, the reef could die within decades.

The Authority’s Russel Reichelt says governments and industry must take strong action to protect the reef.

He says the Garnaut report relied on 15 years of scientific research into global warming.

"It’s also relying on the forecast from the inter-governmental panel on climate change, which have painted a range of futures, but even the rosiest future causes me great concern that the reef will be severely damaged within 20 to 40 years," he said.

The Queensland Tourism Industry Council also accepts the report’s findings.

Chief executive Daniel Gschwind says a report delivered four years ago showed carbon emissions could kill the reef.

He says the reef is worth about $5 billion annually and must be protected.

"We’re very conscious of the role that tourism plays and the effect it could have on tourism if we don’t do the right thing, so it is a very important issue for our industry, it’s an industry that is all based on conservation and nature," he said.

"We will certainly study the report with some interest."

The Garnaut report: What does it really mean for Australia?

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Main points of the Garnaut Report (from The Australian, 4th July 2008)
• By 2050, unmitigated climate change on middle of the road outcomes would mean major declines in agricultural production across much of the country, including a 50 per cent reduction in irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin.• By 2100, irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin would decline by 92 per cent.

• Early economic modelling results of readily measurable unmitigated climate change for middle of the road outcomes on temperatures and decline in rainfall – indicate that climate change would wipe off around 4.8 per cent of Australia’s projected GDP, around 5.4 per cent of projected household consumption, and 7.8 per cent from real wages by 2100.

• Professor Garnaut says: “Australia would be hurt more than other developed countries by unmitigated climate change, and we therefore have an interest in encouraging the strongest feasible global effort. We are running out of time for effective global action, and it is important that we play our full part in nurturing the remaining chance.”

• Prof. Garnaut reiterates his support for an emissions trading scheme to cover as many sectors as practicable.

• The Draft Report advocates the full auctioning of emissions permits and the return of all revenue to households and business.

• The Report proposes that half the proceeds from the sale of all permits is allocated to households, around 30 per cent provided for structural adjustment needs for business (including any payments to TEEIIs), and the remaining 20 per cent allocated to research and development and the commercialisation of new technologies.

• The Draft Report states that it would be in Australia’s interest to find out as soon as possible whether there can be a low-emissions future for coal, and to support rapid deployment of commercially promising technologies.

• Professor Garnaut said that he supported the phase-out of the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, once the unconstrained ETS was fully operational.

“Cut taxes to soften climate pain: Garnaut report” – The Australian

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The Australian, 4th July

TAX cuts and welfare reform should be offered to dampen the impact of a new emissions trading scheme, according to the landmark Garnaut climate change report released today.

Kevin Rudd’s chief climate change adviser, Ross Garnaut, has today urged the Government to pass on the lion’s share of revenue raised through the new scheme, which will put a price on carbon emissions when it starts in 2010.

He also warns some of Australia’s most celebrated tourist destinations and natural wonders – including the Great Barrier Reef and the wetlands of Kakadu in the Northern Territory – could be lost if action is not taken.

The report paints a bleak picture of the international community’s failure to take earlier action on climate change, warning the development of global pacts to create a more level playing field for key Australian industries is an “urgent matter”.

While Professor Garnaut is fighting for the broadest possible ETS, covering as many industries as possible, he also concedes rising petrol prices are already having an impact on consumer behaviour.

Amid warnings that Mr Rudd’s 2010 timetable for a new trading scheme is a mission impossible, his report also concedes that “much anxiety” was expressed about the possibility of an unconstrained ETS generating high and unstable prices in the early years.

“While there are substantial advantages in moving directly to the unconstrained operation of the proposed emissions trading scheme in 2010, the review accepts there is a legitimate second best case for a fixed price for permits in the early years,” he states.

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Off to the ICRS

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Our lab are off to the ICRS Symposium in Ft Lauderdale, Florida – the worlds largest gathering of coral reef scientists – over 2,500 presentations from 114 different countries in 5 days! I will be writing with updates from the conference over the next week:

USNewswire, 17th June

The world’s leading coral reef science conference, the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), begins Monday, July 7 in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Held once every four years, the ICRS brings more than 2,500 international scientists, policy makers, managers, and conservationists together to present the latest findings on coral reef science and management. Reports will be announced on topics including the emerging link between climate change, ocean acidification and coral reef health; diseases affecting coral reefs around the world; recovery of coral reef ecosystems following bleaching episodes; and the effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas.

  • Sanctioned by the International Society for Reef Studies, the largest society focused on coral reefs worldwide.
  • Hosted by the US Coral Reef Task Force and the state of Florida. Chair organization by Hidden List
  • Nova Southeastern University of Ft. Lauderdale, FL, home of the United States’ National Coral Reef Institute.
  • Occurs during the 2008 International Year of the Reef.

Opinion pieces in the Guardian Newspaper

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A good friend of mine, the economist Professor David Stout drew my attention to these two opinion pieces recently published in The Guardian newspaper (one by the IPCC chair, Rajendra Pachauri, and the other by the environmentalist thinker George Monbiot).   I’m far from agreeing with Rajendra on the hope for the world tackling climate change in time.  Considering we are pumping over 2 ppm CO2 per year, I strongly doubt that there are any signs of change to arrest this in time – having only 8 years left to slide emissions into a downward spiral.

 

pdfLink to Pachuari commentary (pdf file), Guardian.co.uk

The second commentary resonates far more with me.  As I’ve commented here before on the three scenarios identified by the Stockholm Network, a variant on the upstream cap idea developed by Oliver Tickell suggests a realistic chance for us to constrain our emissions and stabilize at 400 ppm or less. If I am not wrong, the momentum is building for this type of response – the big question is how big oil and energy is going to respond?  I suggest that this is a space to watch closely!

pdf Link to Monbiot commentary (pdf file), Guardian.co.uk

Rapid increase in fish numbers follows creation of world’s largest marine reserve network

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So the results on the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park zoning are in, and according to new research published in Current Biology, the evidence strongly suggests a rapid increase in fish numbers in no-take areas. Not that this in itself should be so surprising (a decrease in fishing = increase in fish numbers!), but to date previous studies have shown varying results as to the effectiveness of no-take reserves. The rezoning of the GBR back in 2004 resulted in 33.4% of the reef being declared as a no-take marine reserve, essentially closing these areas from all fisheries (recreational and commercial). At the time this created considerable controversy from the community (leading some misguided ‘scientists’ to claim "the over-fishing thing doesn’t have a shred of credibility, as an overall thing"), and numerous critics over the years have highlighted the lack of direct monitoring to show the effectiveness of these reserves.

In short, the work by Garry Russ and team shows that after only two years following the zoning, fish density of a primary target species (the coral trout) increased by 60-70% when compared to unprotected areas. Even more interesting is the finding that the 2006 coral bleaching event in the Keppel Islands caused a decline in the density of fish in the region. With the government debating stronger protection for the GBR, the evidence that these no-take reserves are boosting populations of target species across huge scales (>1000km) is encouraging not only for the GBR but for fledgling marine parks across the globe.

Here is the abstract from Current Biology:

No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are much advocated as a solution to managing marine ecosystems, protecting exploited species and restoring natural states of biodiversity [1, 2]. Increasingly, it is becoming clear that effective marine conservation and management at ecosystem and regional scales requires extensive networks of NTMRs [1, 2]. The world’s largest network of such reserves was established on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 2004. Closing such a large area to all fishing has been socially and politically controversial, making it imperative that the effectiveness of this new reserve network be assessed. Here we report evidence, first, that the densities of the major target species of the GBR reef line fisheries were significantly higher in the new NTMRs, compared with fished sites, in just two years; and second, that the positive differences were consistent for multiple marine reserves over an unprecedented spatial scale (>1,000 km).

Spotting the killer hot spots

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Killer hotspots of over-heated ocean water which destroy huge areas of coral and bring starvation to birds, fish and other sea creatures can now be pinpointed, thanks to a major advance in the use of satellite technology by Australian and American researchers.

Advanced satellites and smart mathematics are enabling the scientists to detect the events which cause mass bleaching of corals and disruption of marine food chains with unprecedented precision.

This is revealing the Great Barrier Reef’s most threatened areas under global warming.

“Until now we have only been able to detect large-scale events under typical seasonal conditions,” team leader and University of Queensland researcher Dr Scarla Weeks said.

“The new technology gives us the power to see what is happening in the ocean around the Great Barrier Reef in much finer scale in both space and time,” said Dr Scarla Weeks, of UQ’s Centre for Marine Studies (CMS) and Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science (CRSSIS).

“It means we can identify those areas most at risk of being hit by hot water, enabling managers and reef visitors to take greater steps to protect them.

“It also means that we can observe coral bleaching events taking place, which were missedbefore because the satellite data didn’t have the fine scales necessary.”

Dr Weeks said that the 2002 bleaching event, which hit 54 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef was clearly detected using satellite data from the US National Oceans and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) – but the subsequent 2005/6 event, which hit the southern GBR hard, was not picked up.

“One reason was the 2005/6 bleaching was an anomaly. It struck in November/December, whereas the usual time that warm water enters the GBR is in late summer, around February.

“The existing technology used didn’t have the resolution to pick it up. In fact it couldn’t observe any reefs close inshore.”

Dr Weeks’ team has announced the development of a satellite and mathematical tool that provides a dramatic improvement in the ability to read sea surface temperature anomalies from outer space. It is more accurate in time and can see much smaller areas of water.

“Using this we can identify individual reefs or groups of reefs which are most at risk of hot water and coral bleaching under climate change,” she said.

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“Barrier Reef to get stronger protection”

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The Age, 25th June 2008

“The federal government and opposition have backed updating laws designed to protect the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

The changes would provide a wider range of enforcement options in terms of protection for the reef, encourage responsible use of the marine park and establish new emergency management powers.

The new laws would also reflect the reef’s updated status as a world heritage area.

Opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt said the Great Barrier Reef was arguably one of the largest and most complex ecosystems in the world.

“The reef is one of the most visually spectacular and richly diverse ecosystems on the planet,” Mr Hunt told parliament.

“We are its custodians, we are its managers, we are proud to have this responsibility and we work on a bipartisan basis across this chamber on this profound responsibility,” he said.

Labor MP Kelvin Thomson said the updated laws would encourage more sustainable use of the reef.

“I believe that these legislative changes will form part of a robust, comprehensive framework for protecting the Great Barrier Reef,” he told parliament.

Mr Thomson said strengthening the laws was a much better idea than covering the more than 340,000 square kilometres of reef with shade cloth, as suggested by Howard government tourism minister Fran Bailey.

“She proposed to turn the Great Barrier Reef into the great barrier roof,” he said.

Debate was adjourned.”