Universe-wide climate change?

As others in the blog world have picked up: four of Australia’s coalition MP’s raised doubts about the consensus that humans are causing climates change. Whilst this in itself is nothing new, the interesting aspect is their justification:

The four backbenchers have questioned the link between human activity and global warming, saying Mars, Jupiter, Pluto and Neptune are also warming up.

Nuclear physicist and West Australian MP Denis Jensen, former ministers and NSW backbenchers Jackie Kelly and Danna Vale, and Northern Territory MP Dave Tollner say the hypothesis of “anthropogenic" or human created global warming was based on theoretical models and unproven economic assumptions. (The Australian)

I have to say, using Astronomy to cloud the issue is a new one to me.

"Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has always been with us and always will be," they said in a document challenging the findings of a cross-party parliamentary report looking at carbon capture options for Australia.

"It is the natural property of planets with fluid envelopes to have variability in climate. Thus, at any given time, we may expect about half the planets to be warming. This has nothing to do with human activities," the four said. (Reuters Article)

Novel, fascinating but unsupported by science. And what these four backbenchers don’t explain to us is why our world hasn’t been warming at the current rate for millions of years (and why it is now) or why all the hundreds of other pieces of evidence presented in the 4th assessment report from the IPCC are wrong. Granted, that may take some time.

I wonder what it must be like to have political representation from someone with this level of insight? I must say, you’d have to be a bit worried!

Comments on the decline of the Great Barrier Reef: Peter Garrett

Below is an extract from The Age, with comments from Peter Garrett, the shadow minister for climate change, regarding the decline in coral cover on the GBR: (link to full article)

“The Great Barrier Reef is our greatest natural asset but the failure of the Howard government to introduce a comprehensive climate change plan is compounding its risk of extinction”

“The Queensland economy will be permanently damaged if we fail to deliver comprehensive climate change solutions that secure the reef’s future,” he said.

“With three quarters of the world’s coral reefs located in the Indo-Pacific and up to 60 per cent expected to be lost by 2030, our region is at the frontline of climate change.”

More on the coral bleaching event in Japan:

As I blogged earlier, the reefs off Okinawa are undergoing a severe bleaching event. The latest news from researchers in the region suggest that it may be worse than previously thought:

Coral bleaching is observed in Ishigaki Is. since late July. High SST(>30C) has continued around the southwest Ryukyu archipelago this summer. SST is measured at 35 degree C at the most affected area of bleaching (shallow lagoon) in the daytime. – Takanori Sato

As a result of these high sea surface temperatures, the reefs are beginning to show signs of prolonged bleaching and subsequent mortality similar to that of the mass bleaching event in 1998:

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Coral bleaching in Florida & the Caribbean

Mark Eakin from NOAA posted the following observations on coral list on the 31st July:

Following on to the increased potential for bleaching that we
reported two weeks ago, thermal stress has continued to increase in
the lower Florida Keys. This results from heating of the Florida Bay
waters to an anomaly well over 1 degree C. Another similar region of
anomalous warmth extends along the western coast of the Bahamas from
Andros Island to Grand Bahamas Island. The Florida Bay waters that
bathe the lower Florida Keys and the waters from northwestern Andros
to Bimini have accumulated more than 4 degree weeks of warming,
placing both areas under a Level 1 Bleaching Alert.

Late last week, Billy Causey reported about 10% bleaching of corals
off West Summerland Key around the western side of Bahia Honda
Channel on the ocean side of the bridge. It was especially
disturbing that the bleaching was hitting a diverse group of coral
species, not just the more sensitive ones.

 

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Little room for doubt: IPCC working group II reports

unep.jpgThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the most reliable consensus on the science of climate change – has released the full report of Working group II (Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability). The conclusions of this heavily reviewed and objective scientific consensus are that ‘Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.’

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A Bolt out of the blue.

As I was quoted in The Australian this weekend in a piece entitled “Coral bleaching as record cold snap hits” (and have blogged here earlier on several occasions), cold weather across southern Queensland has resulted in coral bleaching in the exposed reef flats in the Capricorn Bunker group and the Keppell Islands (as confirmed by a CSIRO oceanographer, David Griffin).

No sooner than this was published, Andrew Bolt, an Op-Ed writer for the Herald Sun took dislike to the published comment: “Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said the extreme variation in temperature might be more common as climate change caused hotter summers and colder winters”.

Welcome back from vacation, Andrew. I must say, I have missed you.

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European heatwaves have doubled since 1880

A new study in the Journal of Geophysical Research has some interesting implications for climate shifts in Europe (link to journal article). The dataset comes from 54 daily maximum temperature series from around Europe (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom). According to the authors, after correcting for bias, between 1880 and 2005, the length of summer heat waves over western Europe has doubled and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled. Continue reading

The “GBR Swindle” revisited – response to Peter Ridd

It seems that “The Great Barrier Reef Swindle” and my subsequent response generated a fair amount of debate throughout the blog world and the scientific community. Dr Ridd has posted his response to the my comments regarding the science behind the response here, and in keeping with the science and debate, see my response below.

Before I go into detail on this, attached is one of the paired photographs from the inshore reefs in Bowen, Queensland detailing local scale changes on the Great Barrier Reef during the 20th century (photographs speak louder than words):

 

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High and Dry

Just spent the weekend reading “High and Dry” – a recent release by a newcomer, Dr Guy Pearse. Pearse is an ex-liberal party member, environmental policy author and speech writer for the former Australian environmental minister Robert Hill, who recently finished his Ph.D at the ANU (and co-wrote the Greenhouse Mafia documentary that aired on ABC’s Four Corners last year). The book deals with the relationship between the the network of lobby groups, industry associations and their influence on the Australian Federal Government’s climate change policies. Altogether a fascinating read for anyone who is interested in politics and climate change in Australia – follow Pearse’s comments on the upcoming election and related environmental issues.

Climate shifts news round-up

  • Reporting in Nature, researchers from Canada show that: “… anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands, and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing.” Whilst no-one wants to be quoted on record that the current flooding across Europe and England is related to climate change (although see some media sources), a Reuters article states an inconvenient truth: “floods force many to face climate change reality“.