Introducing a new blogger to Climate Shifts

Clare Fieseler is a Master of Environmental Management candidate at the Nicholas School of Environment at Duke University. She received a Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service from Georgetown University with a concentration in Environment. At Georgetown, Clare first began her interest in marine life while working as a research assistant for marine mammalogist Dr. Janet Mann. After a short stint in environmental lobbying, Clare worked for two years at the nexus of science and media in the Natural History Unit for the National Geographic Society. She currently resides at the Duke University Marine Lab where she is furiously writing her thesis work on MPA efficacy along the Belizean Barrier Reef, which is co-advised by Dr. Larry Crowder and Dr. John Bruno. Clare is particularly interested in policy and managerial strategies that respond to changing coastal environments.

New study indicates sea level can rise 1 m in 50 years

A new study published in Science this week (Dorale et al 2010) indicates sea level can rise extremely quickly, as fast as “Twenty meters per thousand years [which] equates to one meter of sea level change in a 50-year period,” according to lead author Jeffrey Dorale, an assistant professor of geoscience at the University of Iowa. “Today, over one-third of the world’s population lives within 60 miles of the coastline. Many of these areas are low-lying and would be significantly altered—devastated—by a meter of sea level rise. Our findings demonstrate that changes of this magnitude can happen naturally on the timescale of a human lifetime. Sea level change is a very big deal.”

Phil Berardelli
ScienceNOW Daily News
11 February 2010

Something very unusual happened about 80,000 years ago, as Earth’s last ice age was getting started. Sea levels that had been dropping for thousands of years–as more and more water became trapped in expanding glaciers–suddenly rose, according to a new study. Then after a few thousand years, the levels fell again. Although the researchers haven’t found the cause of this phenomenon, they say the findings could force at least a partial rethinking of the mechanisms governing Earth’s climate.

—–

In coastal caves on the Spanish island of Mallorca in the Mediterranean Sea, the team studied stalactites encrusted with calcite. They measured the elevation of those encrustations, which were deposited like bathtub rings that mark high- and low-water levels, and then dated those deposits using the radioactive decay of traces of uranium into thorium isotopes. Based on those calculations, the researchers found that sea level 80,000 years ago had rebounded to the point where it rose 1 meter higher than it is today. And it could have risen quite quickly, as much as 2 meters per century, says geochemist and lead author Jeffrey Dorale of the University of Iowa, Iowa City.

link to the full story in Science Now here

Dorale, J. A., B. P. Onac, J. J. Fornos, J. Gines, A. Gines, P. Tuccimei, and D. W. Peate. Sea-Level Highstand 81,000 Years Ago in Mallorca. Science 327:860-863.

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IPCC errors: facts and spin

There is a great new must read article at RealClimate outlining and analyzing all those errors in the IPCC AR4 report you keep hearing about.  Check it our here.

Currently, a few errors –and supposed errors– in the last IPCC report (“AR4″) are making the media rounds – together with a lot of distortion and professional spin by parties interested in discrediting climate science.  Time for us to sort the wheat from the chaff: which of these putative errors are real, and which not? And what does it all mean, for the IPCC in particular, and for climate science more broadly?

Let’s start with a few basic facts about the IPCC.  The IPCC is not, as many people seem to think, a large organization. In fact, it has only 10 full-time staff in its secretariat at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, plus a few staff in four technical support units that help the chairs of the three IPCC working groups and the national greenhouse gas inventories group. The actual work of the IPCC is done by unpaid volunteers – thousands of scientists at universities and research institutes around the world who contribute as authors or reviewers to the completion of the IPCC reports. A large fraction of the relevant scientific community is thus involved in the effort…

Read the rest here

New AIMS report on climate change and the tropical marine environment

AIMS has issued an easy to read white paper on its home page, outlining its major findings related to coral reefs and climate change.  This was apparently added on Dec 19, 2009 the same day as Jamie Walker’s “How the reef became blue again” piece in The Australian.  Coincidence?   I’ll excerpt some highlights below:

Climate change and the tropical marine environment

Tropical marine environments such as coral reefs and mangrove forests around the world are under unprecedented pressure due to climate change, changes in water quality from terrestrial runoff and overexploitation. Coral reefs are iconic tropical ecosystems represented by Australia’s irreplaceable Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the less explored reefs off Western Australia. Corals thrive in locations which also happen to be near their physiological limits, making them sensitive to stresses caused by rising sea surface temperature and an increase in ocean acidity linked to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

What we know

  • The long-term average temperature for the waters of the Great Barrier Reef has increased by about 0.4oC since the 19th century and the Reef system has experienced two mass coral bleaching events (1998 and 2002) caused by long periods of coral exposure to unusually warm seawater.
  • During the 1998 coral bleaching event, 42 per cent of shallow water coral reefs on the GBR bleached and an estimated 2 per cent died that year. This equates to approximately 400km2 of reef area.
  • In 2002, the largest bleaching event on record, an even greater proportion of the Reef bleached (55 per cent) and an estimated 5 per cent died. This equates to approximately 1000km2 of reef area
  • While these percentages may seem small, they can be localised and severe events.
  • Some local extinctions of coral species in several parts of the Great Barrier Reef have been observed and appear to be linked to higher sea surface temperatures causing coral bleaching.
  • Coral bleaching was again observed in the 2006 summer, particularly in the southern GBR, where local water temperatures reached around 1-2oC above the seasonal average.
  • Coral reefs may take 10 to 20 years to recover from serious bleaching events that cause coral death.
  • The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is known to be increasing and the extra CO2does not stay just in the atmosphere with a significant amount dissolving into the ocean. The pathways it then follow under different conditions and the consequences of its accumulation in different environments is under-researched. Some scientists have proposed that the large portion of CO2 that is entering the ocean from the atmosphere is causing a shift downwards in seawater pH, making it more acidic.
  • A growing body of experimental evidence is showing that seawater acidified to mimic potential future scenarios significantly impacts upon the health of some fish and coral species. There are many millions of species in the ocean and each will have different sensitivities to acidification and respond in different ways. No single species lives in isolation and how the effects seen at an individual species level translate to an ecosystem response is not understood. It has been speculated that acidified seawater may alter the makeup of marine ecosystems and weaken coral reef structures.
  • It is known that heat stress causes corals to expel the symbiotic algae they host in their tissues. What is not sufficiently understood are the numerous mechanisms that may enable corals to adapt to new, warmer and potentially acidic conditions.
  • Based on observations of an increase in hurricane and cyclone events in recent decades, even more severe storms and cyclones have been proposed to occur as our climate changes, though this remains a topic of debate.

The consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen to the current level of 383 parts per million (ppm) from about 200 ppm in the days before the Industrial Revolution more than 200 years ago. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 taken from AIMS headquarters outside Townsville show broad agreement with this global figure (see page 1 of this document).

Under current IPCC projections and assuming no measures are adopted to reduce CO2emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to reach 500 ppm in the second half of this century. If that is the case, global temperature averages may increase a further 2oC and possibly more.

Coral reefs provide ecosystem services essential to our national identity and wealth. The GBR contributes more than $5 billion annually to the Australian economy.

While Australia’s coral reefs are well managed, they are not isolated from global atmospheric and ocean changes.

Barrier Reef still vulnerable says AIMS CEO Ian Poiner

The Australian recently published a letter from AIMS CEO Dr. Ian Poiner (only online as far as I can tell) written in response to Jamie Walker’s reef wipeout story.  See our coverage of this debacle here, here and here.

This year the Australian Institute of Marine Science has observed that there is no mass coral bleaching on the southern Great Barrier Reef. Your story (“Report undercuts PM’s reef wipeout”, 3/2) uses these observations to contradict the view that the reef is threatened by climate change. This is not the case. The Great Barrier Reef is one of the healthiest coral reef ecosystems in the world, but climate change is a significant long-term threat. Coral reefs exist in locations that are near their physiological limits, making them especially sensitive to stresses caused by rising sea surface temperature and ocean acidity.

The GBR has already experienced two mass coral bleaching events (1998 and 2002), during which hundreds of square kilometres of reef died. While the reef has shown capacity to recover from mass bleaching, the frequency and scale of such events have a significant bearing on the likelihood of recovery. Frequency and scale are directly related to rising sea surface temperatures and there is ample evidence of warming waters on the Great Barrier Reef.

One or two seasons of no bleaching do not mean that the GBR is not threatened. It is over-generalisation to the point of unreality to extrapolate from one set of observations to what is going to happen to the GBR in the long term.

Dr Ian Poiner, CEO, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Cape Ferguson, Qld

Ever wondered what happens to a coffee cup in the ocean at 2300m depth?

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=9456573&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=00ADEF&fullscreen=1


Know you now. Here’s more from the Mar-Eco team:

[27.06.2004] In the deep ocean, the pressure is much higher than on the surface. In order to illustrate this, researchers onboard RV G.O. Sars put a coffee cup into the trawl and brought it down to 2300 meters depth…

The weight of the air presses down on everything on earth. The weight of the water in the sea also creates pressure. Because water is so much heavier than air, pressure in the sea increases much more rapidly with changes in depth. It increases by 1 atmosphere for every 10m of depth, or so. Thus at 1000m the pressure is about 100 times what it is at the surface.

When researchers onboard RV G.O. Sars was sampling down to 2300 meters depths, the pressure was about 230 times at high as it is on land. The coffee cup they put into the trawl was completely compressed.

Warming spurs U.S. to consider ESA protection for 82 coral species

Not sure I agree with this strategy or in the science behind it, but I heard this was coming.  The EPA is considering whether to list 82 new coral species in US Waters as threatened or endangered.  Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis were listed as vulnerable under the Endangered Species Act in May 2006.

From the Federal Register (Vol. 75, No. 27 / Wednesday, February 10, 2010)

Endangered and Threatened Wildlife; Notice of 90–Day Finding on a Petition to List 83 Species of Corals as Threatened or Endangered Under the Endangered Species Act (ESA)

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce.

ACTION: 90–day petition finding; request for information.

SUMMARY: We (NMFS) announce a 90– day finding on a petition to list 83 species of corals as threatened or endangered under the ESA. We find that the petition presents substantial scientific or commercial information indicating that the petitioned actions may be warranted for 82 species; we find that the petition fails to present substantial scientific or commercial information indicating that the petitioned action may be warranted for Oculina varicosa. Therefore, we initiate status reviews of 82 species of corals to determine if listing under the ESA is warranted. To ensure these status reviews are comprehensive, we solicit scientific and commercial information regarding these coral species.

DATES: Information and comments must be submitted to NMFS by April 12, 2010.

The 83 species included in the petition are: Acanthastrea brevis, Acanthastrea hemprichii, Acanthastrea ishigakiensis, Acanthastrea regularis, Acropora aculeus, Acropora acuminate, Acropora aspera, Acropora dendrum, Acropora donei, Acropora globiceps, Acropora horrida, Acropora jacquelineae, Acropora listeri, Acropora lokani, Acropora microclados, Acropora palmerae, Acropora paniculata, Acropora pharaonis, Acropora polystoma, Acropora retusa, Acropora rudis, Acropora speciosa, Acropora striata, Acropora tenella, Acropora vaughani, Acropora verweyi, Agaricia lamarcki, Alveopora allingi, Alveopora fenestrate, Alveopora verrilliana, Anacropora puertogalerae, Anacropora spinosa, Astreopora cucullata, Barabattoia laddi, Caulastrea echinulata, Cyphastrea agassizi, Cyphastrea ocellina, Dendrogyra cylindrus, Dichocoenia stokesii, Euphyllia cristata, Euphyllia paraancora, Euphyllia paradivisa, Galaxea astreata, Heliopora coerulea, Isopora crateriformis, Isopora cuneata, Leptoseris incrustans, Leptoseris yabei, Millepora foveolata, Millepora tuberosa, Montastraea annularis, Montastraea faveolata, Montastraea franksi, Montipora angulata, Montipora australiensis, Montipora calcarea, Montipora caliculata, Montipora dilatata, Montipora flabellata, Montipora lobulata, Montipora patula, Mycetophyllia ferox, Oculina varicosa, Pachyseris rugosa, Pavona bipartite, Pavona cactus, Pavona decussate, Pavona diffluens, Pavona venosa, Pectinia alcicornis, Physogyra lichtensteini, Pocillopora danae, Pocillopora elegans, Porites horizontalata, Porites napopora, Porites nigrescens, Porites pukoensis, Psammocora stellata, Seriatopora aculeata, Turbinaria mesenterina, Turbinaria peltata, Turbinaria reniformis, and Turbinaria stellula. Eight of the petitioned species are in the Caribbean and belong to the following families: Agaricidae (1); Faviidae (3); Meandrinidae (2); Mussidae (1); Oculinidae (1).

The petition states that all of these species are classified as vulnerable (76 species), endangered (six species: Acropora rudis, Anacropora spinosa, Montipora dilatata, Montastraea annularis, M. faveolata, Millepora tuberosa), or critically endangered (one species: Porites pukoensis) by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). Montipora dilatata and Oculina varicosa are also on our Species of Concern list.

See a summary article on corals as endangered species in the EoE here.

BY Allison Winter, E&E reporter

Published February 11, 2010, link to the original story here

The Obama administration will consider federal protection for 82 coral species threatened by warming water temperatures.

The National Marine Fisheries Service said yesterday that it has found “substantial scientific or commercial information” that Caribbean and Indo-Pacific corals may be threatened or endangered. Environmentalists have predicted the corals — found near Florida, Hawaii and U.S. territories — could be wiped out by midcentury if the government does not take steps to protect them from warming waters, rising ocean acidity and pollution.

The announcement in yesterday’s Federal Register launches a formal status review by federal biologists. The fisheries service will also accept public comment before deciding next year on whether to list the corals under the Endangered Species Act.

“The status review is an important step forward in protecting coral reefs, which scientists have warned may be the first worldwide ecosystem to collapse due to global warming,” said Miyoko Sakashita, oceans director at the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity. “Endangered Species Act protection can provide a safety net for corals on the brink of extinction.”

The center asked the fisheries service last year to protect corals and threatened to sue the agency last month if it failed to act.

All of the species under consideration have seen population declines of at least 30 percent over 30 years, according to the center.

The group’s petition blamed myriad threats for the corals’ decline: ocean warming and acidification, shipping-channel dredging, coastal development, pollution from agriculture and development, disease, predation, reef fishing, marine debris, invasive species, aquarium trade, and damage from boats and anchors.

In the service’s finding yesterday, biologists agreed that the coral populations are at risk of collapse without recovery, given the population decline that has occurred already and mounting threats.

If the corals are protected as endangered species, it would be illegal to harm or kill the species. That could open commercial fishers, farmers and all the other industries cited in the petition to federal regulation or lawsuits from environmentalists. A “threatened” listing could be less restrictive. The fisheries service would write regulations to protect the corals.

The government now lists two Atlantic coral species, elkhorn and staghorn, as “threatened” due to disease, warming sea temperatures and hurricane damage.

The center had sought a listing for 83 species, but the government left one out of its proposal. The fisheries service said there was not enough evidence to consider a listing for the ivory tree coral, or Oculina varicosa. The ivory tree coral lives in shallow water from Florida to North Carolina and off Bermuda and the West Indies.

Click here to read the Federal Register announcement.

More details from the Register:

The petition states that all of these species are classified as vulnerable (76 species), endangered (six species: Acropora rudis, Anacropora spinosa, Montipora dilatata, Montastraea annularis, M. faveolata, Millepora tuberosa), or critically endangered (one species: Porites pukoensis) by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). Montipora dilatata and Oculina varicosa are also on our Species of Concern list.

Under the ESA, a listing determination may address a ‘‘species,’’ which is defined to also include subspecies and, for any vertebrate species, a distinct population segment which interbreeds when mature (DPS) (16 U.S.C. 1532(16)). Because corals are invertebrate species, we are limited to assessing the status of species or subspecies of corals. A species or subspecies is ‘‘endangered’’ if it is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range, and ‘‘threatened’’ if it is likely to become endangered within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range (ESA sections 3(6) and 3(20), respectively, 16 U.S.C. 1532(6) and (20)).

Of the 83 petitioned species, eight species occur in the U.S. waters of the Caribbean, and 75 occur in the U.S. waters of the Indo-Pacific. The petition includes species accounts (i.e., description of the species’ morphology, life history, habitat, distribution, and loss estimates over 30 years (20 years into the past and 10 years into the future)) of each of the 83 species, threats facing each species, and descriptions of the status of coral reef ecosystems of the wider Caribbean and Indo-Pacific areas. The petition asserts that all of the petitioned species have suffered population reductions of at least 30 percent over a 30–year period, relying on information from the IUCN.

Eight of the petitioned species occur in the Caribbean, and 75 in the Indo-Pacific.

Caribbean species include Agaricia lamarcki, Dendrogyra cylindrus, Dichocoenia stokesii, Montastraea annularis, Montastraea faveolata, and Montastraea franksii.

I agree there is sound evidence that these species have declined substantially (perhaps by 30% in relative terms) across the broader Caribbean over the last several decades.  Yet note a key to this petition passing the smile test is that each species has to have been found to have declined in US waters, which in the Caribbean, isn’t a lot of habitat.  The thing that has always bugged me about this approach, well one thing, is that although a coral species may have declined by 30% or more, there are in some cases literally tens or hundreds of millions of colonies throughout the species’ ranges. Thus it seems a stretch to suggest they are threatened with literal extinction.

Another is that I think this misses the point of coral conservation; which from my perspective is to restore or maximize coral cover.  As I argued in 2001 (Bruno and Bertness 2001) it would be pretty easy to protect populations of foundation species (i.e., habitat-forming species) without actually conserving their ecological function. Which is I think a weakness of the US Endangered Species Act.

The Caribbean, according to the petitioner, has the largest proportion of corals classified as being in one of the high extinction risk categories by the IUCN. The petitioner asserts that the region suffered massive losses of corals in response to climate-related events of 2005 including a record-breaking series of 26 tropical storms and elevated ocean water temperatures.,

This is a dubious argument, not supported by any peer-reviewed science.  IMO the losses caused by warming-bleaching were very isolated and modest in general, despite greater losses on some individual reefs.

Further, the petitioner asserts that the U.S. Virgin Islands lost 51.5 percent of live coral cover,

I very much doubt this and have seen evidence that contradicts this suggestion.  Most of the loss of live coral cover in the USVI appears to have occurred in 1989 and 1999 (Edmunds and Elahi 2007-see the figure below).  I also assume the values are relative coral cover, rather than absolute values, i.e., coral cover could have declined from %4 to 2% and this would be described as a “%50” loss.

Long-term trends in coral community dynamics on a reef at 9-m depth at Yawzi Point, St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. (A) Percentage of coral cover at each survey period between March 1988 and August 2003.

The petitioner cites Gardner et al. (2003) in asserting that, over the three decades prior to the 2005 events, Caribbean reefs had already suffered an 80 percent decline in hard coral cover, from an average of 50 percent to an average of 10 percent throughout the region.

True, Gardner at al. 2003 does say/find this, but again, note the use of relative %loss values.  Also, we have a paper in press at MEPS (Schutte et al. 2010) that indicates Caribbean mean coral cover is closer to 20% (excluding the very low coral cover FL Keys) and has not noticibly declined since the mid-1980s. But perhaps this is quibbling. There is no doubt coral cover has declined. I just think there could be some exaggeration in the petition. Given what we have seen happening in the media recently, e.g., the IPCC reports, scientists should be really careful about the accuracy of their doom-and-gloom stories.

The abundance and trend information presented by the petitioner for each species is limited to an estimate of the percentage loss of its habitat and/or population over a 30–year period (including 20 years into the past and 10 years into the future), as assessed by the IUCN. However, the petition also asserts that these corals face significant threats. To support this assertion, the petitioner cites Alvarez-Filip et al. (2009) in noting the dramatic decline of the three- dimensional complexity of Caribbean reefs over the past 40 years, resulting in a phase shift from a coral-dominated ecosystem to fleshy macroalgal overgrowth in reef systems across the Caribbean.

We clearly showed this was not true in Bruno et al. 2009.  Very few reefs in the world are truly dominated by macroalgae in any meaningful sense.

Seventy-five percent of the world’s coral reefs can be found in the Indo- Pacific, which stretches from the Indonesian island of Sumatra in the west to French Polynesia in the east (Bruno and Selig (2007), as cited by the petitioner). As recently as 1,000 to 100 years ago, this region averaged about 50 percent coral cover, but 20–50 percent of that total has been lost, according to the petitioner. The petitioner cites Bruno and Selig (2007), stating that regional total coral cover averaged 42.5 percent during the early 1980s, 36.1 percent in 1995, and 22.1 percent in 2003.

Now this, as they say here in Oz, is some dodgy science!

The petition focuses on habitat threats, asserting that the habitat of the petitioned coral species, and indeed all reef-building coral species, is under threat from several processes linked to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, including increasing seawater temperatures, increasing ocean acidification, increasing storm intensities, changes in precipitation, and sea-level rise. The petition also asserts that these global habitat threats are exacerbated by local habitat threats posed by ship traffic, dredging, coastal development, pollution, and agricultural and land use practices that increase sedimentation and nutrient- loading.

References

Bruno J.F. & Bertness M.D. (2001) Habitat modification and facilitation in benthic marine communities. In: Marine Community Ecology (eds. Bertness MD, Gaines SD & Hay ME), pp. 201-218 Sinauer, Sunderland, MA

Bruno J.F., Sweatman H., Precht W.F., Selig E.R. & Schutte V.G.W. (2009) Assessing evidence of phase shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on coral reefs. Ecology, 90, 1478–1484

Edmunds P.J. & Elahi R. (2007) The demographics of a 15-year decline in cover of the Caribbean reef coral Montastraea annularis. Ecological Monographs, 77, 3-18

Schutte V.G.W., Selig E.R. & Bruno J.F. (2010) Regional spatio-temporal trends in Caribbean coral reef benthic communities. Marine Ecology Progress Series, In Press


There’s no denying climate change scientists are being overwhelmed by the sceptics

Amen. That is precisely how I feel. Overwhelmed and outgunned. Still, this great editorial by veteran ABC producer and reporter Jonathan Holmes of Media Watch is uplifting.  The only thing I think he got wrong was to suggest Andrew Bolt “knows far more about the science than most other journalists, environment reporters included”. Bolt has certainly been very vocal in the debate and is making a comfortable living disparaging the science and scientists. But almost entirely by spewing misinformed nonsense that he picks up on denier blogs. See Bolt’s silly response to Jonathan’s piece here.

Journalists weather the changing climate

By Jonathan Holmes

Posted Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:34am AEDT
Updated Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:09am AEDT

Link to the original editorial here.

Just a few years ago, when I was making programs about climate change policy for Four Corners, it was legitimate for journalists to argue that the science of climate change was settled. The issue was what should and could be done about it.

Boy, has the climate changed!

There’s no denying that the climate change deniers, or sceptics, (the term you prefer depends which side you’re on) have succeeded, to a degree that orthodox climate scientists find baffling, in persuading a large proportion of the public that the science of global warming is, in the Opposition leader’s words, “absolute crap”.

An even larger number of folk apparently take the view that there is so much doubt around the science that to take action that would be in any way painful is premature.

It’s true that the failure of Copenhagen has made it hard to argue that Australia should take drastic action on its own. But that was a political failure. It had nothing to do with the science.

It’s true that some stupid exaggerations, unsupported by peer-reviewed science, have been identified in the 2007 IPCC report. They’ve done a lot of harm to its credibility.

It’s true leaked emails from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia have exposed a disturbing unwillingness on the part of its scientists to share raw data, and apparent attempts by them to prevent sceptical views from being published in reputable journals.

But the vast majority of climate scientists (and for that matter, of scientists in other relevant disciplines), supported by the vast preponderance of peer-reviewed research, still maintain that human-induced climate change is an unassailable reality: rapid global warming will continue, not just for the next hundred years, but far into the future, unless and until human beings drastically reduces the emission of greenhouse gases.

So why are their views being overwhelmed, in the public arena, by the tiny number of ‘sceptics’ with scientific credentials, and their non-scientist supporters?

The simple answer, it seems to me, is that it’s been the doubters who’ve had the passion, and the commitment.

Think what you will of the Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt, he’s industrious. He starts posting on his blog at around 6:00am, and his last posts are often past midnight. If there’s truth in Annabel Crabb’s famous observation that he cherry-picks articles from the University of East Bumcrack, he does so repeatedly, and obsessively, and to his growing army of devoted fans, convincingly. He’s made global warming his specialty. He knows far more about the science than most other journalists, environment reporters included.

He’s supported by the usual army of conservative columnists. The Devines and Pearsons and Albrechtsens and Akermans, with barely a science degree between them, have been able to satisfy themselves that a global scientific consensus is in fact a global political conspiracy, fuelled by capitalist-hating greenies.

The opinion pages – and as we showed on Media Watch last Monday, sometimes the news pages – of our only national broadsheet have heavily favoured sceptics over proponents of the scientific consensus.

Far more influential, I would guess, are the commercial radio talk back hosts. At least half a dozen of the most influential have been enthusiastically espousing the sceptic cause for years.

After all, it meshes perfectly with the general message that makes talk-back radio work for its audience, which goes roughly like this: “The politicians/bureaucrats/bosses are idiots or scoundrels. They pretend this problem (any problem) is complicated when it couldn’t be more simple. You and I can see the answer. Blind Freddie can see the answer. But they can’t because they’re stuck in their ivory towers/on the take/too clever by half/out to take your money from you.”

As we said on last week, these gentlemen (and they are all men) don’t like to trouble their listeners with both sides of a question. The proponents of global warming science (such as they are) seldom get a guernsey on their shows. The Lord Moncktons of this world get literally hours of unopposed air time.

And their listeners, as anyone who argues against them in public knows, are vociferous and passionate. Just look at the posts at the bottom of this article.

Lastly, of course, there’s the simple fact that people would rather believe those who tell them “she’ll be right,” than those who tell them their way of life is leading the world to hell in a hand-basket.

Of course, the mainstream media (with the notable exception of The Australian) has reported climate change science extensively, and on the whole, uncritically. The sceptics are quite right about that.

But reporting scientific findings, and convincing people they are true, are two different things. If the public is to be galvanised, the science needs selling. But where are the salespeople? Who has been out there arguing passionately and compellingly that climate change is real, and urgent?

As everyone agrees, the Prime Minister has been missing in action for a year or more. His minister, Penny Wong, is robotic. Peter Garrett has been sidelined. Only Greg Combet has summoned up any discernible passion on the topic.

There’s Bob Brown and his Green cohort, who preach strictly to the converted. And Malcolm Turnbull, whose sermons are magnificent; except that nobody’s listening to him any more.

The scientists themselves can’t be expected to do the job. Very few have a talent for public advocacy. It’s not their role.

They know that winning a public argument on television or radio, where there’s little time for anything but assertion on either side, has little to do with the ability to compile and assess evidence in the field, or meticulously to program computer simulations that attempt to predict the future.

They’ve been reluctant, too, to dignify people they regard as cranks or self-serving controversialists by taking them on in public debate.

And, as that debate has become more and more stridently political, they’ve been even less inclined to get embroiled.

So it’s no coincidence that the most compelling public arguments for the reality of global warming have been made by people who aren’t themselves climate scientists: people like former US vice-president Al Gore, or mammal palaeontologist Tim Flannery, or ‘public intellectuals’ like Robert Manne.

But Al Gore is a long way away, and Flannery’s been pretty quiet of late.

NGOs like Greenpeace and WWF have plenty of passion, but they’ve produced no public advocate who’s really broken through. Perhaps the Australia Institute’s Clive Hamilton has come nearest, but he’s hardly a household name outside the chatterati.

Our left-wing columnists, like Phillip Adams and Mike Carlton, have no pretensions to detailed knowledge of the science. Our environmental and science journalists largely stick to news reporting and avoid advocacy.

What we don’t have in Australia – have never had – is someone like The Guardian’s George Monbiot: a journalist with the same access to the mainstream as Andrew Bolt, who has made it his or her business to be as thoroughly on top of climate change science, and who’s willing to mix it with the sceptics at any and every opportunity.

It may have made little difference. Rationality doesn’t necessarily win arguments like this. Yet it still feels to me as though the pass has been sold without a fight.

Of course, it may turn out that the sceptics are right. In twenty years time we may all be laughing at the great global warming scare, as we do now at Y2K.

If that happens, the scientists, and the journalists who accepted their findings, will have a lot to answer for, and the sceptics will have every right to crow.

But if the opposite is true, and we find ourselves facing climate change that by then can’t be reversed before much of this continent becomes uninhabitable, it will be small comfort to be able to blame the sceptics.

If the science is as compelling as the climate change advocates would have us believe, then this was an argument that should have been won long ago. For want of champions, it’s perilously close to being lost.

Science behind Great Barrier Reef water quality management

Articles from Peter Ridd of James Cook University in newspapers and on blog sites and letters to the editor supporting his position (e.g. Tom Darlington, 9 February 2010 in the Townsville Bulletin) claim there is no scientific evidence agricultural pollution is damaging the Great  Barrier Reef. As well, claims are made that there is a body of research available (specifically from Peter Ridd’s work) that shows that runoff from farming is having no effect (or very little effect) on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Neither of these claims is true.

An example of a healthy reef (Princes Charlotte Bay, Far Northern GBR)

An example of a healthy reef (Princes Charlotte Bay, Far Northern GBR)

There is a large body of published results from hundreds of studies  showing that (with just a few of the possible references):

1. Water discharged from rivers to the GBR continues to be of poor quality in many locations. The main source of pollutants is agriculture (cropping and grazing) e.g Packett et al (2009),  Bainbridge et al (2009).

2. Land derived pollutants, including suspended sediments, nutrients and pesticides are present in the GBR at concentrations likely to cause environmental harm e.g. Lewis et al (2009) and  De’ath and Fabricius (in press).

3. Coral cover on the GBR is generally much lower (about 25%) now than 40 years ago (cover about 50%) e.g. Bruno and Selig 2007. Macroalgal cover appears to be greatly increased e.g. De’ath and Fabricius (in press) Wismer et al (2009)

4. This loss in coral cover has been caused by a combination of  factors – poor water quality (see references above), crown of thorns starfish damage also associated with poor water quality (Brodie et al 2005), bleaching associated with climate change, loss of calcification associated with increased carbon dioxide in the surface water (De’ath et al 2008) and some minor damage from fishing activities.

Most of these results up till 2008 are summarised in the following document (click through for a link to the site and pdf download)

On the other hand there are few published results of research showing that agricultural pollution is having no effect on the Great Barrier Reef – none that I can find. What can be found are unsupported (by research results) opinions. Now we all have opinions and I think mine are as good as anybodies but I don’t pass them off as facts when they are not supported by research results.

An example of a degraded macroalgal dominated reef (Russell Island, Wet Tropics, Northern GBR)

I make no statements about the recently introduced Queensland Government legislation or its likely effectiveness, which remain to be tested, but do claim that there is ample well-founded evidence that agricultural pollution of the GBR is occurring, the effects are severe and that management of this pollution is a necessity.

Jon Brodie
Catchment to Reef Research Group
Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research
James Cook University, Townsville.

References:

Bainbridge, Z.T., Brodie, J.E., Faithful, J.W., Sydes, D.A. & *Lewis*, S.E. (2009). Identifying the land-based sources of suspended sediments, nutrients and pesticides discharged to the Great Barrier Reef from the Tully-Murray Basin, Queensland, Australia. Marine and
Freshwater Research, 60, 1081-1090

Brodie, J.E., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G. & Okaji, K. (2005). Are increased nutrient inputs responsible for more outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish? An appraisal of the evidence.
Marine Pollution Bulletin, 51:266-278

Bruno JF, Selig ER (2007) Regional Decline of Coral Cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, Extent, and Subregional Comparisons. PLoS ONE 2(8): e711

De’ath G. and Fabricius K. in press. Water quality as a regional driver of coral biodiversity
and macroalgae on the Great Barrier Reef. Ecological Applications

De’ath G, Lough JM, Fabricius KE, (2008) Declining Coral Calcification on the Great Barrier Reef, Science, 323, 116-119

Lewis, S.E. Brodie,  J.E. Bainbridge, Z.T. Rohde, K. Davis, A. Masters, B. Maughan, M.
Devlin, M. Mueller, J. Schaffelke, B. ( 2009) Pesticides: A new threat to the Great Barrier Reef. Environmental Pollution 157, 2470-2484

Packett, R. Dougall, C. Rohde, K. Noble, R. 2009. Agricultural lands are hot-spots for annual runoff polluting the southern Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Marine Pollution Bulletin 58, 976-985.

Wismer S, Hoey AS, Bellwood DR (2009) Cross-shelf benthic community structure on the Great Barrier Reef: relationships between macroalgal cover and herbivore biomass. Marine
Ecology Progress Series 376:45-54.

Peter Ridd is not the only reef expert at James Cook University

Although you’d think so given how frequently he is quoted in the Australian media, almost exclusivly in stories arguing that the GBR is in “bloody brilliant shape” and that climate change, sediment pollution, and ocean acidification are not threats to the reef’s future.

For example, in Jamie Walker’s piece last December on “How the reef became blue again” Ridd dismissed a range of threats to coral reefs, stating:

“Ten years ago, I was told that the coral was going to die from sediment, and we have proved that is complete rubbish,” Ridd says. “They are saying that pesticides are a problem, but when you look at the latest data that is a load of rubbish. They are saying that bleaching is the end of the world, but when you look into it, that is a highly dubious proposition.

“So when something comes along like the calcification problem, you are sort of left with this wolf story . . . they are crying wolf all the time . . . and it is very difficult for the public to have confidence in what they are saying.”

I don’t know what he is referring to when he says “we have proved that is complete rubbish” but i’ll email him and ask for a reference.

Also see Peter’s quotes in this recent story:

James Cook University researcher Peter Ridd recently accused Australian scientists of crying wolf over the threat of climate change reef, claiming researchers who predicted corals would be mostly extinct by mid-century had a credibility problem as the natural wonder was in “bloody brilliant shape.”

The Townsville-based Dr Ridd, who is an expert on marine physics, has previously claimed the Great Barrier Reef is as resilient to environmental change as a “cockroach is to a nuclear war”, with threats such as coral bleaching and agricultural run-off not as serious as commonly believed.

With a PhD in Physics and a thesis titled “The Input impedance of a horizontal dipole antenna over a layered halfspace” wouldn’t it be clear he isn’t the best source of information about the GBR at JCU?

JCU has more coral reef experts on one hallway than most countries have.  Certainly more than any other single institution I can think of, e.g., see the ARC Center for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies.  Here is a list of a few of the internationally recognized coral reef experts based at JCU that reporters could be talking to, assuming they actually want to learn something and are not fishing for quotes to back up pre-determined conclusions:

Baird, Andrew
Senior Research Fellow
James Cook University
phone: 61 7 4781 4857
fax: 61 7 4781 6722
Andrew.Baird@jcu.edu.au

Bellwood, David
James Cook University
phone: 07 4781 4447
fax: 61 7 4725 1570
David.Bellwood@jcu.edu.au

Connolly, Sean
James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 4242
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Sean.Connolly@jcu.edu.au

Hughes, Terry
James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 4000
Fax: 61 7 4781 6722
Terry.Hughes@jcu.edu.au

Jones, Geoff
James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 4559
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Geoffrey.Jones@jcu.edu.au

Kingsford, Michael

James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 4345
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Michael.Kingsford@jcu.edu.au

Munday, Philip

Australian Research Fellow

James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 5341
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Philip.Munday@jcu.edu.au

Pratchett, Morgan
Australian Postdoctoral Research Fellow
James Cook University
Phone: 07 4781 5747
Fax: 61 7 4781 6722
Morgan.Pratchett@jcu.edu.au

Russ, Garry
James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 4432
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Garry.Russ@jcu.edu.au

Willis, Bette
James Cook University
Phone: 61 7 4781 5349 / 61 7 4781 5731
Fax: 61 7 4725 1570
Bette.Willis@jcu.edu.au

And at the nearby Australian Institute of Marine Science, there is:

Lough, Janice
Australian Institute of Marine Science
Phone: 61 7 4753 4248
Fax: 61 7 4753 4386
j.lough@aims.gov.au

McCook, Laurence
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Australia
Phone: 61 7 4750 0787
Fax: 61 7 4772 6093
l.mccook@gbrmpa.gov.au

Finally, here at UQ, reporters could talk to:

Anthony, Ken
University of Queensland
phone: 61 7 3365 9154
fax: 61 7 3365 4755
K.Anthony@uq.edu.au

Dove, Sophie
The University of Queensland
Phone: 61 7 3365 7229
Fax: 61 7 3365 4755
sophie@uq.edu.au

Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
The University of Queensland
Phone: 61 7 3365 1156
Mobile: 040 110 6604
Fax: 61 7 3365 4755
oveh@uq.edu.au