HFC emissions and impact on climate projected to grow much faster than expected

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A new article in PNAS (Velders et al 2009) argues that HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) emissions will grow at a surprising rate, becoming a substantial greenhouse gas later this century.  HFCs were developed  as a replacement for ozone damaging CFCs.  Production and release of HFCs have grown quickly since the 1995 ban on CFCs.

From the abstract – The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions…Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9–19% (CO2-eq. basis) of projected global CO2 emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6–13 years of CO2 emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28–45% compared with projected CO2 emissions in a 450-ppm CO2stabilization scenario.

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Read and download the article in PNAS here

Read a related post on Andrew Revkins Dot Earth blog here

US Congress to consider major climate change bill

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From Politico: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will roll the dice on a top priority this week, bringing a contentious climate change bill to the floor despite strong misgivings from her rank-and-file and an outspoken chairman who remains a major impediment. Read the full story here

From the NYT: House Democratic leaders late last night released a revamped, 1,201-page energy and global warming bill  clearing the way for floor debate Friday even though it remains uncertain if they will have the votes to pass it…Perhaps the biggest modification in the new version involves language sought by the nation’s rural electric cooperatives that gives the country’s smallest power utilities a free 0.5 percent slice of the cap-and-trade program’s valuable emission allowances…Democrats are still not done wheeling and dealing as they gear up for a floor debate, with critical issues still unresolved on everything from biofuels to which federal agency — U.S. EPA or the Agriculture Department — will have lead oversight of the offset program that would pay for environmentally friendly land management practices.  Read the full NYT article here.

One thing I like about the draft bill is it’s realist view of the value of biofuels. Accurately accounting for the true carbon footprint of biofuels has become a major sticking point for the bill, with farm state representatives arguing for restricting the EPAs authority:

From the NYT – the bill as posted does not restrict EPA’s authority to weigh “indirect” emissions from land-use changes when calculating the carbon footprint of biofuels. The issue is important because under a 2007 expansion of the renewable fuels standard, biofuels must have, to varying degrees, lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels.

NGOs are cautiously supportive of the bill.  Lou Leonard, Director of U.S. Climate Policy for World Wildlife Fund, said “Passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act through the Energy and Commerce Committee today marks a watershed moment in the decades-long battle to protect our planet from dangerous climate change and all of the economic, environmental and national security vulnerabilities it presents.” but noted ” I remain concerned that the legislation falls far short of what is needed for international clean technology cooperation and international adaptation assistance. Unless strengthened, this bill could undermine the President’s ability to secure an effective international agreement during climate negotiations in Copenhagen this fall.  See the full WWF statement on the bill here

Download the bill as a PDF here

UPDATE: Democrats have reached an agreement with farm state republicans, setting the stage for a vote on the bill, expected Friday. Read the full story here

Could coral reefs close to seagrass be buffered from ocean acidification?

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coral1Seagrass meadows have long been known to be highly productive habitats, and as a result producing oodles of oxygen in the midday sun. Anyone who’s ever snorkelled over a seagrass meadow on a sunny day will have seen seagrass leaves furiously bubbling away. This photosynthetic productivity can result in an increase in the pH of the water column (becoming less acidic). This is primarily because CO2 and, thus, its form when dissolved in seawater, carbonic acid, are withdrawn from the water as a substrate for photosynthesis. This results in the production of the bubbling O2. But what are the consequences of such a pH change?

Recent research by the Universities of Dar es Salaam, Tel Aviv and Stockholm published in the Marine Ecology Progress Series (volume 382) and conducted in tropical seagrass meadows of East Africa have investigated the impact of such pH changes.  Semasi et al. revealed that this change in pH can cause localised increases in the rates of calcification and growth of calcareous algae such as Hydrolithon sp., Mesophyllum sp., and Halimeda sp., hence seagrass buffers high acidity (low pH).

As has been debated by ClimateShifts previously, there is increasing evidence that oceans have become more acidic since the start of the industrial era. Recent predictions suggest that oceans could become much more acidic over the next 100 years as a result of increasing CO2 emissions. Current predictions suggest that this will result in (amongst other things) declining reef calcification rates.

Although this study by Semesi et al. shows the effects of seagrass upon algae, the questions on the lips of many reef conservationists will be whether such findings are cross transferable to the calcification of corals. These studies in Zanzibar were small scale, carried out in seagrass mesocosms, and currently only reflect small scale patterns. Whether seagrass productivity can result in larger spatial scale changes that could buffer pH changes on nearby reefs remains to be seen. Maybe the World should be looking at seagrass meadows with greater attention?

Climate Change Accounting Goes Public in a Big Way

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2_image002Solve Climate reports on a massive electronic billboard displaying the real-time stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, unveiled on 18 June outside New York City’s Penn Station.

The world’s first “Carbon Counter”, launched by Deutsche Bank, will be seen daily by half a million people and millions more can do so online at know-the-number.com.

The basis for the number displayed on the Carbon Counter – over 3.6 trillion tons and rising by 800 tons per second – is not immediately clear. Deutsche Bank explains the calculation of the figure on its website:

Greenhouse gas concentrations are frequently expressed as an equivalent amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This CO2-equivalent concentration in parts per million (ppm) can then be expressed in terms of metric ton of CO2, a standard of measurement, which as a stock of gases in the atmosphere is readily understood.

According to the IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 379 ppm in 2005. The estimate of total CO2-eq concentration in 2005 for all long-lived GHGs is about 455ppm.

On June 18th as the counter started, long-lived GHGs in the atmosphere were estimated to be 3.64 trillion metric tons, growing at 2 billion metric tons per month, or 467 ppm, of which CO2 was 385 ppm.

The Carbon Counter, therefore, displays in metric tons the absolute amount of all greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (as opposed to the concentration) but excludes the cooling effect of aerosols.

The use of the absolute amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere yields a big number that is rapidly increasing, but it is questionable whether this muddies the already confusing array of units used to explain the rising pressure of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is a simpler and much more widely used unit used to explain the rising pressure of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere, though less dramatic for a real-time billboard aiming to capture the attention of passing commuters.

CO2 Now suggests that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reached 390.18 ppm in May 2009, up nearly 2ppm from 388.50 ppm in May 2008, the highest level in at least the past 800,000 years.

Related posts:

·         Avoiding confusion for stabilisation targets for climate change and ocean acidification.

NOAA report on climate change impacts in the US released

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Earlier this week, the Obama administration released a new summary report described as “a new science report representing a consensus of 13 agencies developed over a year and half and focused on potential climate change impacts on the United States.”

It’s the most comprehensive report to date on the possible impacts of climate change for everyone across America, and begins an important process of redefining the sort of information we need in order to deal with climate change at national and regional scales. Effectively managing our response to a changing climate falls into two general categories:

1)  Implementing measures to limit climate change and therefore avoid many of the impacts discussed in the report. These measures must reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and might include increasing our reliance on clean energy, and developing energy efficient technologies

2)  Reducing our vulnerability and increasing our resilience to ongoing climate change in pro-active, community-based ways. Examples of this include such measures as developing more climate-sensitive building codes to keep people out of harm’s way, or planting more drought or heat tolerant crops, for example.

Among the main findings are:
• Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life.
• Increased heavy downpours will lead to more flooding, waterborne diseases, negative effects on agriculture, and disruptions to energy, water, and transportation systems.
• Rising water temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coral reefs and the rich ecosystems they support. These and other climate-related impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries.
• Insect infestations and wildfires are already increasing and are projected to increase further in a warming climate.

See the complete key findings here
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NOAA, headed by marine biologist Jane Lubchencho, was the lead agency in compiling the report.

“This report stresses that climate change has immediate and local impacts – it literally affects people in their backyards,” said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “In keeping with our goals, the information in it is accessible and useful to everyone from city planners and national legislators to citizens who want to better understand what climate change means to them. This is an issue that clearly affects everyone.”

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One thing I really like about the report is that it is written in fairly simple language and makes nice use of images and graphics to illustrate the points and issues. The report has one of the few easy to understand climate change scenario graphs available to the public (above).  It also highlights who will be affected and who needs information about climate change;
• farmers making crop and livestock decisions, as growing seasons lengthen, insect management becomes more difficult and droughts become more severe
• local officials thinking about zoning decisions, especially along coastal areas
• public health officials developing ways to lessen the impacts of heat waves throughout the country
• water resource officials considering development plans
• business owners as they consider business and investment decisions

The White House has set up a web site with footage from a press conference about the report, links to powerpoint presentations, the report itself, images and graphs, ect. Lots of resources about climate change impacts in user-friendly formats.  Very nice.

Three Really, Really Bad Reasons to Want to Be a Marine Biologist

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Because it’s a slow Friday and this was a great read – check out the following piece by the ‘piquant’ Dr Milton Love (who really does exist – check out the ‘Love Lab‘ at the University of California) on why being a marine biologist really ain’t that great:

Reason Number Three: “I want to be a marine biologist because I want to make big bucks.”

Okay, here’s the bottom line. By Federal law, marine biologists have to take a vow of poverty and chastity. Poverty, because you are not going to make squat-j-doodly in this job. Just how squat is the doodly we are talking about? Well, five years after finishing my PhD I was making slightly less than a beginning manager at McDonalds. Ooh, a 36 year old guy with 13 years of college and 5 years of post-doctoral experience making just about as much as a semi-literate 19 year old with pimples the size of Bolivia, who can speak perhaps 3 words at a time before the term “you know” enters the conversation.

Indeed. Read more in Part 1 and Part 2 of the series, direct from the Love Lab, or check out the lab’s blog written by their resident fish, the Cow Cod. In the day and age when scientists are assumed to be revered, it’s great to see someone in a high up position (with a great tattoo none-the-less)  not take themselves too seriously:

Milton Love is a Research Biologist at the Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara. He has published simply oodles of scientific papers on the fishes of the Pacific Coast and has written several books on that topic. He thinks he knows more about these fishes than just about anyone. Whether this is true or merely the delusions of an individual with an ego the size Mount Kilamanjaro is still an open question.

Biogeochemists Map Out Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The U.

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I stumbled across this great mapping system of CO2 emmisions over at Science Daily. Whilst previous estimates of CO2 levels have been calculated per capita in the US, a new map called ‘Vulcan’ created by biogeochemists at Purdue University shows the top local and regional carbon dioxide producers in high resolution.

In the past, CO2 levels have been calculated based on population, putting the Northeast at the top of the list. Now, a new map called Vulcan reveals for the first time where the top carbon dioxide producers are in the country. The answer surprised Kevin Gurney, Ph.D., a biogeochemist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind.

“There are a lot more emissions in the Southeast than we previously thought, and a lot of that is because it’s not necessarily associated with where people live directly, but actually where industry and activities are,” said Dr. Gurney.

The high-resolution map shows 100 times more detail than ever before and zooms in to show greenhouse gas sources right down to factories, power plants and even roadways. An animated version of Vulcan reveals huge amounts of greenhouse gas gets blown toward the North Atlantic region.

“We’ve never had a map with this much detail and accuracy that everyone can view online,” Dr. Gurney said. (Read more @ Science Daily)

The official website (“The Vulcan Project“) has an amazing Google Earth interface, where you can map the emissions from US power producers, residential and commercial CO2 emissions at 100km2 local scale resolution. Perhaps the most interesting contrast is the maps of residential CO2 emissions when comparing Republican vs Democrat districts. Given the difference in population density between the US and Australia, it’d be interesting to see someone scale this effort to a continental scale, allowing regional comparisons and perspectives on global carbon budgets.

Overfishing – now in a cineplex nearby

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Just thought I’d flag a movie thats just started doing the rounds in cinema theatres in the UK and the U.S (and I’m guessing the DVD-release should follow once its done the festival rounds). “The End of the Line” examines the imminent extinction of bluefin tuna, tackles the impact on marine life resulting in huge overpopulation of jellyfish and investigates the profound implications of a future world with no fish. It also aims to do for overfishing what the “Inconvenient Truth” did for climate change. Although in all fairness, Ted Danson is no Al Gore. Watching the trailer did get me excited (well that, and depressed in light of the HUGE problems facing global fish stocks) as many of the big name marine ecologists and fisheries biologists dealing with the problem of overexploited fish stocks seem to be involved: Daniel Pauly and Boris Worm to name a few.

Bablelgum has some short, related episodes (and some fun interviews and behind the scenes stuff) that you can watch for free.

A place at the negotiating table?

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Fisheries must be included in the ongoing discussions of how the world’s most vulnerable can adapt to climate change. The future consequences for global fisheries are uncertain, but what is certain is that there will be winners and losers, and we can bet the losers will be those who don’t have much already, says a recent policy article published in Nature by Nicholas Dulvy and Edward Allison.

Warmer and more acidic waters could result in decreased fish stocks, altered fish migration routes and loss of important fish spawning grounds. Dulvy and Allison highlight that it is the poorest coastal nations of the world that are most susceptible to climate change effects on aquatic ecosystems. People of these vulnerable countries are highly dependent on fisheries for income and food security, while having limited societal capacity to adapt to the ongoing changes:

African and southeast Asian countries are the most economically vulnerable to climate change impacts on their fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Of the 33 nations identified as being most vulnerable to climate impacts on their fisheries sectors, 19 are among the world’s least developed countries, whose inhabitants are twice as reliant on fish and fisheries for food as those of more developed nations.

The authors plea that aquatic resources, and the people dependent on them, are included in upcoming global climate treaties. More specifically, they offer some policy recommendations. For example, combined targets of emission reductions and sustainable fisheries management could be reached by reducing the overinflated global fishing fleet. Countries doing so could gain carbon credits as this action represents a legitimate mitigation activity. Furthermore, a more flexible and diversified fishing sector, which can adapt to changes in catch composition and stock abundances, should be promoted. Finally, fisheries policies should be integrated into a wider development process. For example, artisinal fishers can be provided with alternative livelihoods that lessen their dependence on fisheries, while the social-ecological resilience of vulnerable fishing communities can be promoted by improving their infrastructure, access to markets and social services.

The never-ending jellyfish joyride

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Whilst the media have run with a series of entertaining headlines (“Sea of deadly jelly lurks, scientist warns“, second only to “jellyfish joyride threatens oceans“), University of Queensland scientist Dr Anthony Richardson issued a grave warning as to the future of the worlds oceans (co-inciding with World Oceans Day). Dr Richardson’s research shows convincing evidence that jellyfish aggregations, associated with overfishing of their main predators and increases in nutrient run-off from fertilisers and sewage, are likely to take over large parts of the worlds oceans in the decades to come.

“Small pelagic fish like sardines and pilchards are being fished out in many places and they eat plankton, which is partly made up of juvenile jellyfish,”

“Nutrient run-off on land causes phytoplankton blooms which produce water with low oxygen which jellyfish can survive but fish can’t.

“As well, a warming ocean associated with climate change sees increasing numbers of tiny flagellates in surface waters, and they are a favourite food of some jellyfish.” (Read More)

Amongst the more impressive of these are the giant Nomura jellyfish (over 2m in diameter, weighing over 200kg), which is already causing problems for fisherman in Japan by clogging nets (click through the image above for a higher resolution photograph). Despite the serious topic, I think Dr Richardson is a definite contender for the best paper title of the year (“The jellyfish joyride: causes, consequences and management responses to a more gelatinous future“, with a subsection entitled “Self-enhancing feedback: the never-ending jellyfish joyride“).