Tag Archives: Climate Change

BBC News reports: The top 10 of climate skepticism

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A colleague of mine, Dr John Bruno forwarded me a very well written article from BBC news on the top 10 of climate skepticism (link). Also on BBC News recently: responses to a climate change questionnaire sent to the 61 “accredited experts in climate and related scientific discipline” (of which 14 replied), with such detailed answers as “rising CO2 might help “green” the world, with increases in food supply”. Indeed.

1. EVIDENCE THAT THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE IS GETTING WARMER IS UNCLEAR
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Instruments show there has been some warming of the Earth’s surface since 1979, but the actual value is subject to large errors. Most long-term data comes from surface weather stations. Many of these are in urban centres which have expanded in both size and energy use. When these stations observe a temperature rise, they are simply measuring the “urban heat island effect”. In addition, coverage is patchy, with some regions of the world almost devoid of instruments. Data going back further than a century or two is derived from “proxy” indicators such as tree-rings and stalactites which, again, are subject to large errors. Warming is unequivocal. Weather stations, ocean measurements, decreases in snow cover, reductions in Arctic sea ice, longer growing seasons, balloon measurements, boreholes and satellites all show results consistent with the surface record of warming. The urban heat island effect is real but small; and it has been studied and corrected for. Analyses by Nasa for example use only rural stations to calculate trends. Recently, work has shown that if you analyse long-term global temperature rise for windy days and calm days separately, there is no difference. If the urban heat island effect were large, you would expect to see a bigger trend for calm days when more of the heat stays in the city. Furthermore, the pattern of warming globally doesn’t resemble the pattern of urbanisation, with the greatest warming seen in the Arctic and northern high latitudes. Globally, there is a warming trend of about 0.8C since 1900, more than half of which has occurred since 1979.
2. IF THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS RISING, IT HAS NOW STOPPED
Sceptic Counter
Since 1998 – almost a decade – the record, as determined by observations from satellites and balloon radiosondes, shows no warming. 1998 was an exceptionally warm year because of the strong El Nino event. Variability from year to year is expected, and picking a specific warm year to start an analysis is “cherry-picking”; if you picked 1997 or 1999 you would see a sharper rise. Even so, the linear trends since 1998 are still positive.
3. THE EARTH HAS BEEN WARMER IN THE RECENT PAST
Sceptic Counter

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News roundup

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“And now for Australia’s next great challenge — saving our environment”

Australia’s vast oceans cover twice as much area as our land. They include some of the world’s most significant marine ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo Reef, Shark Bay and the Great Australian Bight. More than 80 per cent of plants and animals living in our southern ocean waters are found nowhere else. Establishing Australia’s first Ocean Act would provide a legal foundation for the good management of our oceans.This should be backed by a national network of marine national parks and an Australian Oceans Fund. This fund could help urban and regional coastal communities better protect their local environments and would improve the management of estuary and marine environments. (Link to The Age article)

“UN scientists to hammer out final climate change report”The UN’s top climate scientists gathered in the Spanish port city of Valencia Monday to boil down their landmark report on global warming into a summary version for policymakers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, has warned of dire consequences unless rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gases are held in check. The document to be issued in Valencia next Saturday distills its 2,500-page, three-volume assessment — the first since 2001 — into a 25-page synthesis designed to guide government decisions on how to best accomplish this.

The more forceful the panel’s conclusions, the more pressure it will put on policymakers to adopt measures — some of them politically costly — ranging from carbon taxes and mandatory caps on CO2 emissions to huge investment in renewable energy. But even as it basks in the limelight of the Nobel Prize, the IPCC has been criticized for being too conservative in the face of mounting evidence of a global crisis. (Link to AFP article)

“Scientists strive to pinpoint warming forecasts”Moving on from the risk of global warming, scientists are now looking for ways to pinpoint the areas set to be affected by climate change, to help countries plan everything from new crops to hydropower dams. Billion-dollar investments, ranging from irrigation and flood defences to the site of wind farms or ski resorts, could hinge on assessments about how much drier, wetter, windier or warmer a particular area will become. (Link to Reuters article)

More on CO2 emissions and reduction strategies

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Two interesting news articles have come out of Harvard this week: firstly an excellent speech by John Holdren (a Professor of Enviromental Policy) hitting back at the global warming skeptics which is well worth reading: “Global warming is a misnomer… It implies something gradual, uniform, and benign. What we’re experiencing is none of these” (Link). Second, I came across this article (in Fox News of all places) discussing research by Harvard geoscientist Professor Kurt House that suggests de-acidifying oceans could combat climate change. Professor House’s approach seems slightly different than the age old suggestions of seeding the oceans with iron to stimulate phytoplankton blooms (thereby using photosynthesis to absorb CO2) – instead envisioning “treatment plants” that intake water from the oceans and remove naturally occuring hydrochloric acid. In theory, this would work: by making th oceans less acidic, it goes some way to reducing the problems of ocean acidification and increases the CO2 absorbing capacities of the ocean sinks. To quote the lead author of the study: “Essentially, our technology dramatically accelerates a cleaning process that nature herself uses for greenhouse gas accumulation.”

Such methods may seem radical, but given the dramatic increases in CO2 emissions as i mentioned in my last post, such approaches may become inevitable. A colleague of mine, Dr Ken Caldeira from the Carnegie Institute, Stanford, recently wrote an op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled “How to cool the globe” (link), proposing the seeding of small particles of sulfur into the stratosphere to counteract the effects of global warming. In essence, similar to the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1992, pouring a five-gallon bucket’s worth of sulfate particles per second into the stratosphere may just be enough to stop global warming for 50yrs. A quick browse of the literature suggests that the theory behind such a statement rings true enough (link). The best part of this plan? It is easy to achieve through current technology, relatively cheap, and sulfur particles naturally degrade in the environment over time. Although such geoengineering solutions sound like something from a science-fiction novel (I don’t think that our ever skeptic friend Michael Crichton will include one in his novels soon!) they may not be so far-fetched given the growing risk of catastrophe that appears to face us.

While it would be my preference not to interfere in the atmospheric and geological cycles of the planet, the fact that we are doing it anyway with disastrous results, means that we may have to rethink the ethics and begin to play ‘gardener’ to the planet. It may be our last chance given that we have may have kicked off the types of devastating runaway climate impacts that many climate experts are now talking about. Whether we like it or not, we now have to play earth’s gardener or face a very difficult and different future.

CO2 emissions rising faster than expected

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A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences from an international team of scientists (headed by Josep Candell of the Global Carbon Project, CSIRO) shows that the recent increases in CO2 are rising faster this decade than during the 1990’s (link to pdf). The authors blame rapid increases in a synergy of factors, primarily economic growth, fossil fuel usage and somewhat more worryingly a decline in the efficiency of natural sinks, such as ability of the oceans to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere (read more). It looks like we may be reaching the upper end of the modeling predictions (the 500ppm tipping point) sooner than anyone thought: these findings are alarming, and strongly imply that the UN Climate Report may already be out of date.

Someone yesterday reminded me of a great analogy similar to that of the rise in CO2 emissions: for example, if you start driving from point A to point B, and half-way there realise that you are driving north instead of south (and hence that you are likely to arrive in point C rather than point B), the only way of getting to point B is to stop and turn around – slowing down isn’t going to help the situation. Given the evidence presented in this paper – It is too late to alleviate or ‘slow down’ fossil fuel usage. And with that, do we need a global revolution in what we do rather than pretending we can ease our way out of this problem with waterdowned commitments and wishy washy policy (remember the ‘aspirational’ non-existent targets of APEC?).

The Great Barrier Reef conspiracy

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Peter Garrett, Shadow Minister for Climate Change, Environment, Heritage and Arts has issued a statement on his website entitled “New research points to collapse of Great Barrier Reef: Labor calls for comprehensive action ” discussing the recent article on the decline of Indo-Pacific reefs (in particular the Great Barrier Reef):

New research showing a severe decline in coral reefs is a wake-up call to the Howard Government. Comprehensive action to save the Great Barrier Reef from collapse is urgently needed.

The Great Barrier Reef is our greatest natural asset but the failure of the Howard Government to introduce a comprehensive climate change plan is compounding its risk of extinction.

The University of Carolina researchers, John Bruno and Elizabeth Selig, have been backed by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Director of the Centre for Marine Studies at the University of Queensland.

But the story doesn’t end there. ABC and Channel 7 news are now reporting that Garrett applied to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority for scientific reports on the health of the Great Barrier Reef through a Freedom of Information Act (FOI) request, which have since been refused on the grounds that the Garrett was seeking the documents to assist with his political campaign. Strange times indeed.

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Climate change is a war that we must fight

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An interesting article in The Age by Ian Dunlop (a former international oil, gas and coal industry executive), the deputy convener of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil. Of particular interest is Dunlop’s closing statement:

Australians must demand that all political candidates clearly set out their climate change policy. We need to know the detail now, not take it on trust until after the election; we have been let down too badly already and it cannot happen again.

In the event that real leadership does not emerge, we must place these issues outside the political sphere, to be handled independently on a quasi-war footing. It is that serious.

Full article below:

BEFORE casting their votes next month, Australians should reflect long and hard on the real priorities the nation faces. These are not tax cuts, industrial relations, the economy, interest rates or the stockmarket, but the very survival and sustainability of our society and the planet.

With the global population heading from 6.5 billion today towards 9 billion by 2050, we are already exceeding the ability of the planet to absorb the impact of human activity. The immediate sustainability priorities are water, climate change and the peaking of global oil supply. But our leaders, having supposedly crossed the threshold of accepting that sustainability, in particular climate change, is a serious issue, seem to believe it can be solved by minor tweaking of business as usual. That is demonstrably not the case.

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A world with corals: What will it take?

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Heidi Schuttenberg (co-author of A Reef manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching) and I recently published a letter in Science entitled “A world with corals: What will it take?” (link to .pdf). We wrote this article in response to a “doomsday” newsfocus by Richard Stone (A world without corals – link to pdf), captioned “Besieged by pathogens, predators, and people, the ‘rainforests of the sea’ may soon face their ultimate foe: rising ocean acidity driven by CO2emissions”

Too often people opt for the “game over” or doomsday strategy when referring to climate change and coral reefs. My sentiments echo those of Heidi: “The future of reefs depends very much on what we do now: what we do to limit climate change & what we do to minimize local stressors to reefs. The resolutions passed at ITMEMS and ICRI build on innovative work in the science and management communities to articulate a meaningful agenda for building reef resilience to climate change. Courageous action to implement these recommendations is needed and justified.”

What are your thoughts on the topic? Please feel free to discuss this article or comment here.

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Endangered coral becomes climate warning system – News from Ningaloo Reef

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Reuters Summit-Endangered coral becomes climate warning system

By James Grubel

CANBERRA, Oct 1 (Reuters) – The future is looking grim for coral reefs, home to bright tropical fish and a lure for tourists worldwide but also an early warning system for climate shift, leading coral scientist Ove Hoegh-Guldberg says.

Warming seas and increased ocean acidity will devastate more than 90 percent of the world’s corals over the coming century unless urgent action is taken, Hoegh-Guldberg told Reuters.

“You’ll get tougher corals surviving, but most of them are not tough enough to survive the sorts of temperatures we’re going to throw at them over the next 100 years,” Hoegh-Guldberg said.

The dire outlook points to a severe impact on tourism and the destruction of habitat for tropical fish, which are crucial to food supplies for millions of people around the world.

Hoegh-Guldberg, professor of marine science at Australia’s University of Queensland, has made a career studying tropical corals and Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. But he is worried there may be little coral left for future generations.

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More climate change cynicism

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Wired magazine summarises the Washington conference on the issue of climate change succinctly:

Rice delivered her message at a White House-hosted climate change meeting, held just days after the United Nations met to discuss post-Kyoto greenhouse gas restrictions. Bush, predictably, skipped the UN meeting: he’s refused to ratify Kyoto, and won’t accept strict, mandatory climate change measures, even though nearly ever other nation agrees that they’re necessary. Even China and India are ready to negotiate.”(“Condi’s Latest Doublespeak: Fight Climate Change Like Terror” – Wired)

On the topic, it’s interesting to note the selective editing of Rice’s empty rhetoric by the media:

“If we stay on our present path, we face an unacceptable choice: either we sacrifice global growth to secure the health of our planet, or we sacrifice the health of our planet to continue with fossil-fuelled growth.” (“Warm words unconvincing” – Herald Sun)

“If we stay on our present path, we face an unacceptable choice: either we sacrifice global economic growth to secure the health of our planet or we sacrifice the health of our planet to continue with fossil-fuelled growth.” (“US pushes for clearer goals on clean air” – The Australian)

In stark contrast to the full text from the US State Government transcript:

“If we stay on our present path, we face an unacceptable choice: Either we sacrifice global economic growth to secure the health of our planet or we sacrifice the health of our planet to continue with fossil-fueled growth. This is a choice that we must refuse to make. Instead, we must cut the Gordian Knot of fossil fuels, carbon emissions, and economic activity. This current system is no longer sustainable, and we must transcend it entirely through a revolution in energy technology. So our third task is to work with private industry to develop and bring to market new energy technologies that not only pose no risk to economic growth, but can actually accelerate it.” (US State Government

Keep watching for the UN meeting in Bali this December. Over this side of the world, climate ‘shift’ is “no cause for panic” for John Howard (Link) – even the face of food shortages, water restrictions and escalating prices ( Link). In a surprising move, the federal government have comitted to new national “clean energy” goals by 2020 (Link), including solar, wind and clean coal, but also dropped the term “renewable”, potentially paving the way for nuclear energy (Link). The Sydney Morning Herald has already labelled the federal governments climate strategy “a disaster” (link)

Climate-news roundup

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Track records speak for themselves: Australian Government on climate change

As I have posted here on Climate Shifts recently, a meeting scheduled in Bali, Indonesia, for December is aimed at jump-starting talks to find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. As it was, the Kyoto Protocol was designed as the first of a series of steps to set the world on the pathway toward controlling and eventually reducing emissions (or would have been, if Bush and Howard would have ratified the treaty). Now the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer says that the Australian government is ready to discuss climate change. To quote the Minister, “This is a discussion about what to do post 2012. And we are fully able to participate and to vote.” I guess that sounds a little hollow doesn’t it given track records so far! (Link to ABC Article)

“Sea change in the response to climate change”

“U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said a one-day high-level meeting on climate change on Monday was a turning point in the battle against global warming. “What I heard today is a major political commitment for a breakthrough in climate change in Bali,” Ban said. A meeting scheduled in Bali, Indonesia, for December is aimed at jump-starting talks to find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to curb climate-warming emissions. “Science has spoken clearly,” Ban said at a final news conference. “Now we need a political answer.” (Link to Reuters Article)

“Climate change biggest security risk”

“Climate change poses this century’s biggest security threat, possibly forcing the migration of millions of people from countries such as China, Australia’s top policeman has warned. Water and food shortages could send waves of migrants across oceans and borders in the Asia-Pacific region, causing social disruption and unrest, said Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty. “The potential security issues are enormous and should not be underestimated.” Even if only some of the predictions of catastrophic change wrought by global warming materialised, “climate change is going to be the security issue of the 21st century,” Keelty said.”(Link to AFP Article)