Creating the worlds biggest No-take marine reserve

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This week saw an impassioned plea from one of the Indian Oceans foremost marine biologists to create the Worlds biggest no-take marine reserve. The proposal presented by Prof Charles Sheppard at the Reef Conservation UK conference in London is to turn the entire Chagos Archipelago located in the centre of the Indian Ocean into one enormous marine sanctuary.

The bold plan supported by a network of institutions and scientists (the Chagos Trust) involved with conservation and research in the Chagos Archipelago and recently submitted to the UK government would double the entire global area of no-take areas and increase the total coverage of marine reserves by 13%.

But why is this important? The Archipelago contains ½ of the Indian oceans remaining healthy coral reefs, and harbours the world’s largest coral atoll in a quarter of a million square miles of the world’s cleanest seas. Creating the Worlds biggest MPA would prevent one of the last bastions of untouched coral reefs succumbing to the increasing intensity of fishing that is beginning to change these pristine reefs forever.

Creating such an enormous marine reserve would not only protect the internal biodiversity of the Chagos but would serve to add greater resilience to the marine environment of the entire Indian Ocean. Supported by global NGO’s such as the Pew Foundation the Chagos Archipelago would act as a legacy site, ensuring that nations such as the Maldives and the Seychelles, who are only just developing sufficient capacity to manage their reef systems will have the capacity to recover into the future. The Chagos would act as one large source of productivity to support diversity throughout the Indian Ocean.

For those such as myself who were not around the remember the complex politics of the Chagos, they have belonged to Britain since 1814 (the Treaty of Paris) and are constituted as the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). In the 1960s and 70s, Britain secretly removed the Chagos Islanders off their islands, to make way for a US and British military base. Only Diego Garcia, where there is a base, now remains inhabited (by military personnel and employees). The other 54 tiny islands add up to only 16 square kms (8 square miles) in total. It is now by far Britain’s greatest area of marine biodiversity.

At a time of increasing appreciation of the marine environment in the UK through the development of the Marine Bill it is time that its other areas of Britains biodiversity such as the Chagos receive similar protection.

Developing the Chagos as a full No-take area was described by Prof. Sheppard as creating an insurance policy for the Worlds oceans. This is critically important at a time of increasing climate change that threatens the Worlds biodiversity.

Whereas many of the Worlds proposed marine reserves involve complex political difficulties the potential of protecting the Chagos Archipelago is politically possible. There are little in the way of commercial fishing interests associated to the Islands, and many of these are Illegal. If any Islanders do ever return to the Archipelago, numbers are likely to be so low as to easily fit into a future management plan, and many of the stakeholders with interests in the islands are currently in support of the proposals.

As the newly established ProtectChagos.org website states “Now, before it is too late, there is an opportunity to save this precious natural environment, creating a conservation area comparable with the Galápagos or the Great Barrier Reef”.

‘Fourteen days to seal history’s judgment on this generation’

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Today 56 newspapers in 45 countries take the unprecedented step of speaking with one voice through a common editorial. We do so because humanity faces a profound emergency.

Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year’s inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world’s response has been feeble and half-hearted.

Climate change has been caused over centuries, has consequences that will endure for all time and our prospects of taming it will be determined in the next 14 days. We call on the representatives of the 192 countries gathered in Copenhagen not to hesitate, not to fall into dispute, not to blame each other but to seize opportunity from the greatest modern failure of politics. This should not be a fight between the rich world and the poor world, or between east and west. Climate change affects everyone, and must be solved by everyone.

The science is complex but the facts are clear. The world needs to take steps to limit temperature rises to 2C, an aim that will require global emissions to peak and begin falling within the next 5-10 years. A bigger rise of 3-4C — the smallest increase we can prudently expect to follow inaction — would parch continents, turning farmland into desert. Half of all species could become extinct, untold millions of people would be displaced, whole nations drowned by the sea. The controversy over emails by British researchers that suggest they tried to suppress inconvenient data has muddied the waters but failed to dent the mass of evidence on which these predictions are based.

Few believe that Copenhagen can any longer produce a fully polished treaty; real progress towards one could only begin with the arrival of President Obama in the White House and the reversal of years of US obstructionism. Even now the world finds itself at the mercy of American domestic politics, for the president cannot fully commit to the action required until the US Congress has done so.

But the politicians in Copenhagen can and must agree the essential elements of a fair and effective deal and, crucially, a firm timetable for turning it into a treaty. Next June’s UN climate meeting in Bonn should be their deadline. As one negotiator put it: “We can go into extra time but we can’t afford a replay.”

At the deal’s heart must be a settlement between the rich world and the developing world covering how the burden of fighting climate change will be divided — and how we will share a newly precious resource: the trillion or so tonnes of carbon that we can emit before the mercury rises to dangerous levels.

Rich nations like to point to the arithmetic truth that there can be no solution until developing giants such as China take more radical steps than they have so far. But the rich world is responsible for most of the accumulated carbon in the atmosphere – three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emitted since 1850. It must now take a lead, and every developed country must commit to deep cuts which will reduce their emissions within a decade to very substantially less than their 1990 level.

Developing countries can point out they did not cause the bulk of the problem, and also that the poorest regions of the world will be hardest hit. But they will increasingly contribute to warming, and must thus pledge meaningful and quantifiable action of their own. Though both fell short of what some had hoped for, the recent commitments to emissions targets by the world’s biggest polluters, the United States and China, were important steps in the right direction.

Social justice demands that the industrialised world digs deep into its pockets and pledges cash to help poorer countries adapt to climate change, and clean technologies to enable them to grow economically without growing their emissions. The architecture of a future treaty must also be pinned down – with rigorous multilateral monitoring, fair rewards for protecting forests, and the credible assessment of “exported emissions” so that the burden can eventually be more equitably shared between those who produce polluting products and those who consume them. And fairness requires that the burden placed on individual developed countries should take into account their ability to bear it; for instance newer EU members, often much poorer than “old Europe”, must not suffer more than their richer partners.

The transformation will be costly, but many times less than the bill for bailing out global finance — and far less costly than the consequences of doing nothing.

Many of us, particularly in the developed world, will have to change our lifestyles. The era of flights that cost less than the taxi ride to the airport is drawing to a close. We will have to shop, eat and travel more intelligently. We will have to pay more for our energy, and use less of it.

But the shift to a low-carbon society holds out the prospect of more opportunity than sacrifice. Already some countries have recognized that embracing the transformation can bring growth, jobs and better quality lives. The flow of capital tells its own story: last year for the first time more was invested in renewable forms of energy than producing electricity from fossil fuels.

Kicking our carbon habit within a few short decades will require a feat of engineering and innovation to match anything in our history. But whereas putting a man on the moon or splitting the atom were born of conflict and competition, the coming carbon race must be driven by a collaborative effort to achieve collective salvation.

Overcoming climate change will take a triumph of optimism over pessimism, of vision over short-sightedness, of what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature”.

It is in that spirit that 56 newspapers from around the world have united behind this editorial. If we, with such different national and political perspectives, can agree on what must be done then surely our leaders can too.

The politicians in Copenhagen have the power to shape history’s judgment on this generation: one that saw a challenge and rose to it, or one so stupid that we saw calamity coming but did nothing to avert it. We implore them to make the right choice.

This editorial will be published tomorrow by 56 newspapers around the world in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by a Guardian team during more than a month of consultations with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. Like the Guardian most of the newspapers have taken the unusual step of featuring the editorial on their front page.

COP15: Cold and grey but buzzing with excitement and hope.

copenhagen

The United Nations climate change conference begins in about five hours time.  Being from the other side of the planet, I am significantly jetlagged, awakening from a nightmare at 1 am about a fire trapping me and my family on a hill.  I don’t know if I got away.

As I exited Copenhagen airport yesterday, friendly young Danes wearing COP15 shirts greeted me and directed me to the train which would take me to ‘Centrum’, where my hotel is situated.   The area around the central station is certainly a ‘colourful’ place – complete with streetwalkers, sex shops and Middle Eastern markets.  Not my choice but a consequence of the fact that all other hotels are completely booked up.

The weather is chilly – prompting me to go out this morning to buy some warm clothing.  You see, in a last-minute rush to finish things up at the University, I forgot to consider the weather that would greet me at the other end of the trip.  Perhaps a little ironic given I was headed to a conference on the climate change!

My focus is now on the schedule for the next two weeks. There are literally hundreds of interesting events in talks scattered across the two weeks of the conference.  My contribution will be to address a number of different groups and organisations in order to ensure that the very best and most credible information within my area of expertise (coral reefs and climate change) is available to negotiators and other influential parties.

I am aware that the message must be direct and to the point – much of this will be to remind people that we don’t have much wriggle room.  We can’t talk blithely about 550 or even 450 ppm – this will kill off coral reefs and most other critically important ecosystems. We have no other choice on this planet but to immediately adopt an international strategy to reduce emissions more than 30% by 2050, and 95% by 2050.  Only this will ensure a safe pathway back to greenhouse gas concentrations well below 350 ppm, while at the same time not exceeding carbon dioxide concentrations of 450 ppm on the way.  In adopting this strategy, significant changes will inevitably occur. This is not a business-as-usual strategy but is (as is becoming increasingly clear) the only one which will allow us to survive as global civilisation.

Saying this, I am one of the optimists about Copenhagen. The overwhelming sense of momentum that has greeted me here enthuses me with the belief that Copenhagen will result in a compelling commitment among nations to deal with this planet threatening problem.

And perhaps my next dream will be one from which I will awaken knowing that we did all survive after all!

The Galapagos are feeling the far-reaching impacts of climate change

A new publication in the journal ‘Global Climate Change’ detailing the decline of marine organisms in the Galapagos Archipelago following human exploitation and climate change (El Niño, grazers and fisheries interact to greatly elevate extinction risk for Galapagos marine species) makes for somber reading.

A series of events, including the 1982 El Nino, overfishing and the appearance of urchins that destroy coral, has altered the islands’ marine ecosystems. At least 45 Galapagos species have now disappeared or are facing extinction. That suggests future climate change driven by human activity will have an major impact on the islands’ wildlife.

The report.. found that the islands have yet to recover from the intense El Nino climate event of 1982 to 1982, which triggered abnormal weather conditions. That event destroyed coral reefs in the archipelago, many of which had persisted for at least 400 years. However, overfishing significantly weakened the marine ecosystem’s ability to recover from the devastation caused by the El Nino. In particular, fishermen removed so many large predatory fishes and lobsters from the islands’ seas, that huge numbers of sea urchins were able to colonise the area. They then overgrazed the coral, damaging it further and preventing it re-establishing.

As a result, 45 species are now globally threatened. All live on the Galapagos, and most are found nowhere else. (Read more over at BBC News)

Several species from the archipelago are listed as ‘probably extinct’ (including the black spotted damselfish and the 24 rayed sunstar), and other threatened species include the Galapagos sea lion, marine iguana, Galapagos penguin and pink cup coral.

Interestingly though, it’s not only the the ‘charismatic’ species  are suffering:

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Above are two photographs from the Charles Darwin Research Station – on the left from 1974, and the right taken again in 2003. Back in the 1970’s, the rocks were covered by a dominant brown algal species (Bifurcaria galapagensis), which as the name suggests is an endemic species that thrived in the intertidal regions (upto 6m depth). According to researchers at the institute, a mass mortality and dieback occured between January and March 1983, leaving the barren exposed rock that you see in the photograph on the right. This species is now assumed to be extinct since the mid-1980’s, as extensive searches across the entire Galapagos archipelago have revealed nothing.

“The Galapagos, the Rosetta Stone of evolution, is now teaching us about the far-reaching impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems,” says report co-author Professor Les Kaufmann from Boston University, US.

“Nowhere on Earth are the combined impacts of climate change and overfishing more clearly defined than in the Galapagos Islands,” says co-author Sylvia Earle of the US National Geographic Society.

“Decades of data link recent fishing pressures to disruption of the islands’ fine-tuned systems, making them more vulnerable to natural, and anthropogenic changes in climate.” (Read More)

Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO2-induced ocean acidification

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John Bruno emailed me a copy of a recent paper published yesterday in Geology (Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO2-induced ocean acidification) to comment on here on Climate Shifts – looks like Andrew Bolt has beaten me to the punch.

What you hear on the internet: calcification is greatest under the highest level of pCO2 for three species of invertebrates:

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True.

What you don’t hear on the internet: in 10 of the 18 species studied, calfication decreased under the increasing pCO2.

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What this study isn’t: proof that OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IS A GOOD THING CAUSE THEY CAN BUILD MORE SHELLS.

The Ries et al study is a great example of how much we don’t know about the specific mechanisms of marine calcification – s0 much so that one of the organisms in the study, the blue mussell (see the photograph above) exhibited no response to elevated pCO2. As Ries points out:

A combination of factors, including the organisms’ ability to regulate pH at the site of calcification, the extent of organic-layer coverage of their external shell, their biomineral solubility, and whether they utilize photosynthesis, may contribute to the disparity of these response patterns.

The ecological implications of the study are pretty interesting:

The crab exhibited improved shell-building capacity, and its prey, the clams, showed reduced calcification.  “This may initially suggest that crabs could benefit from this shift in predator-pray dynamics.  But without shells, clams may not be able to sustain their populations, and this could ultimately impact crabs in a negative way, as well,” Ries said. (Read More)

The Reis et al study is also a great example of the media paraphrasing science to fit their selective political agenda. Am I surprised to see variable responses of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification? No, not really – a report in Science last year showed that marine phytoplankton increase calcification and net primary production increased under higher CO2 conditions. Does this ‘debunk alarmism‘? No, not at all.

Launch of a new book on maritime law

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Professor Michael White QC & Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Photo credit: Peter Fogarty)

It gives me great pleasure to launch Prof Michael White’s latest book entitled Australia’s Offshore Laws, which has been published by a the Federation Press. Michael has had a distinguished career. Born in Brisbane, he joined the Australian Navy where he rose to Lt Commander.  In 1969 he left the Navy to study law at the University of Queensland and later at Bond University, where he was awarded degrees and commerce, law and eventually a Ph.D. in law.

After practising as a barrister for 16 years, he became a Queen’s Counsel in 1988.  In 1999, he joined the University of Queensland and became the inaugural Director of the Centre for Maritime Law. Michael has been a active member of the Centre for Marine Studies over the past several years, and has been highly productive in terms of writing.  In this regard, he has produced several books now as part of his role within the centre. Today, we are here to celebrate one of his latest outputs, where he has pulled together all of the Australian offshore laws into one place. Given the scale and complexity of this area, this is quite a significant feat indeed. And the subject matter is very timely.

In a world that is increasingly becoming global – not only through its economic systems but also through the challenges that face it faces from a burgeoning population to a rapidly changing climate – the need for Australia to have a clear perspective on the laws that govern its offshore waters couldn’t be more important. These are the legal instruments with which a vast number of resources and challenges are regulated – from fisheries, immigration, defence, customs and resource extraction.

You only have to think of the recent pressure on Australian resources both internally and externally, and the recent kerfuffle over refugees in our north-west waters to understand how important these laws and regulations are in terms of Australia’s well being. But as Michael has pointed out in the preface, our current structures within this area are “disparate, uncoordinated and overlapping”.

As Michael comments repeatedly in the book, this area is in need of important reform. It looks like he will be getting his wish – the Commonwealth Attorney General announced in September 2009 that the government would be pursuing reform in this area through a bill that will be introduced in 2010 called the “Maritime Powers Bill “. This book looks like it will be one of the key supporting resources for this bill and the subsequent reform of Australia’s offshore laws.

Well done Michael!

Australian Offshore Laws
Published 26 November 2009
Publisher The Federation Press
Hardback/508pp
ISBN 9781862877429
Australian RRP $195.00

Searching for the ‘smoking gun’ in the climate change code

Since the now notorious CRU email distraction hack, it seems EVERYONE has become an expert in not only climate change but now code. Apparently ‘Armed and Dangerous‘ quote mined the code for ‘suspicious’ words like artificial, and stumbled across the following code in on of Briffa’s reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,- 0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
if n_elements(yrloc) ne n_elements(valadj) then message,'Oooops!'
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,timey)

…and reaches the following conclusion…

All you apologists weakly protesting that this is research business as usual and there are plausible explanations for everything in the emails? Sackcloth and ashes time for you. This isn’t just a smoking gun, it’s a siege cannon with the barrel still hot (Read more),

I’m not sure exactly how they managed to track this one given the person writing the code managed to spell ‘artificial’ incorrectly (searching for fudge, maybe?). Sorry to be an apologist here, but Tim Lambert over at Deltoid does a great job of showing exactly why its pretty pointless to analyse and critique code when you have no idea how the code functions. In summary, it’s neither false or deceptive. Still looking for that smoking gun?

But hey, code-mining is fun. Anyone here run a Linux system? Try this command:

find . -name *.[hcS] -not -regex ‘./.git.*’ | xargs cat | grep ”hack” | wc -l

Except replace the part in red with, oh, anything you like. If you want to see which files contain the word you are grepping for, use this:

egrep -H -A2 -ir “(hack)” *

Some of the comments in the Linux kernal are pretty revealing. You know, when you quote-mine for profanity:

arch/mips/pci/ops-bridge.c:      * IOC3 is fucked beyond believe …  Don’t even give the
arch/mips/pci/ops-bridge.c-      * generic PCI code a chance to look at it for real …
arch/mips/pci/ops-bridge.c-      */
–
arch/parisc/kernel/sys_parisc.c:/* Fucking broken ABI */
arch/parisc/kernel/sys_parisc.c-
arch/parisc/kernel/sys_parisc.c-#ifdef CONFIG_64BIT
–
drivers/mtd/mtd_blkdevs.c:        registered, to prevent the link/init ordering from fucking
drivers/mtd/mtd_blkdevs.c-         us over. */
drivers/mtd/mtd_blkdevs.c-      if (!blktrans_notifier.list.next)
––

lib/vsprintf.c: * Wirzenius wrote this portably, Torvalds fucked it up
lib/vsprintf.c- */
lib/vsprintf.c-
–

net/ipv4/netfilter/nf_nat_snmp_basic.c: * (And this is the fucking ‘basic’ method).
net/ipv4/netfilter/nf_nat_snmp_basic.c- */
net/ipv4/netfilter/nf_nat_snmp_basic.c-static int snmp_parse_mangle(unsigned char *msg,

Conclusions? Quote mining code is a waste of time unless you know what you are looking at.

Marine Protected Areas (MPA’s) gazetted in resource-poor areas of the seascape

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Theres a new paper out by Edgar et al in Ecological Applications that tracks the ecosystem effects of 14 MPA’s, and exploited companion sites, in southern Australia and Tanzania over a 16 year period.

The effects of the MPAs are interesting: biomass of large predators is on a steep increasing trend, while prey-species such as grazing molluscs and urchins are on a downward slope. I wonder what this will lead in terms of macroalgal abundances?

Another interesting finding is that

recently declared MPAs across Australia have been systematically located in areas with few fishery resources. Stakeholders with fishing interests presumably lobbied successfully against the “locking up” of exploitable fish stocks in SZs

I’ve stumbled upon many ecologists who tend to think that MPA’s are almost always designated in pristine areas, thus confounding interpretations of whether they are effective, i.e “the protected sites are healthy, not because they’re protected, but because they were healthy in the first place”. Those with more insights into how local resource users think and work will probably disagree on this, and usually claim the contrary, i.e. “people are pretty darn good at maneuvering the MPA-creation process so as not to include their best fishing grounds”. This study provides compelling evidence of the latter:

The abstract summarizes things nicely:

Tasmanian reef communities within ‘‘no-take’’ marine protected areas (MPAs) exhibited direct and indirect ecological changes that increasingly manifested over 16 years, eventually transforming into communities not otherwise present in the regional seascape. Data from 14 temperate and subtropical Australian MPAs further demonstrated that ecological changes continue to develop in MPAs over at least two decades, probably much longer. The continent-scale study additionally showed recently established MPAs to be consistently located at sites with low resource value relative to adjacent fished reference areas. This outcome was presumably generated by sociopolitical pressures and planning processes that aim to systematically avoid locations with valuable resources, potentially compromising biodiversity conservation goals. Locations that were formerly highly fished are needed within MPA networks if the networks are to achieve conservation aims associated with (1) safeguarding all regional habitat types, (2) protecting threatened habitats and species, and (3) providing appropriate reference benchmarks for assessing impacts of fishing. Because of long time lags, the ubiquity of fishing impacts, and the relatively recent establishment of MPAs, the full impact of fishing on coastal reefs has yet to be empirically assessed.

Apparently in Australia the science is far from settled

It’s been quite a day here in Australia for politics. As John Quiggin put it, “Turnbull defeated, Hockey discredited, Abbott doomed“. In a nutshell: the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (our ‘climate change hero‘) proposed an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in the Senate, which needed the help of the opposition to pass the bill with a majority vote. Last week, Malcolm Turnbull (leader of the opposition party) agreed on a deal to pass a modified version of the ETS, providing the go ahead for the Rudd’s legislation.

Why is this important? Whilst the Labour party see this as an essential step to curbing CO2 emissions and seek to pass the bill before Copenhagen next week, the opposition Liberal party (who are still busy debating as to whether climate change even exists) see this as a ‘$120bn energy tax‘. Since last week, turmoil in the Liberal Party (directly over the ETS scheme) prompted a leadership challenge, and Malcolm Turnbull was toppled in favour of Tony Abbott – a self-proclaimed climate change skeptic who will lead the Liberal party to renege the deal done with the Labour party over the ETS.

He said he was humbled but exhilarated by the win.  “We are gearing up for the fight of our lives,” he said at his first press conference as leader, adding that he was not frightened to fight an election against Kevin Rudd on climate change.

Tony Abbot rather famously once said:

“The argument on climate change is absolute crap. However, the politics of this are tough for us. 80% of people believe climate change is a real and present danger.”

So wait: according to the Liberal party, the science is crap, but we still need an ETS? Don’t worry, apparently that’s just hyperbole and no longer his considered opinion. Thankfully, others in the Liberal party view this more honestly:

One unnamed moderate Liberal MP, quoted by AAP, put it less tactfully, saying the party had “f…ed ourselves over”.

So what happens next? Watch carefully. The possibility of members of the opposition rebelling and crossing the floor to vote with the government isn’t out of the question). However, if the Senate fails to pass the ETS before Copenhagen (which is looking increasingly likely), Rudd has the option of dissolving the senate and call a double dissolution election – taking the matter to the polls (and according to opinion polls, would clean sweep). Or, with the Austral summer holidays and the festive season coming up, there could be no easy resolution until the new year.