The human fingerprint in global warming

The new indispensable climate change blogger John Cook of Skeptical Science (sorry Joe, but John is blowing your doors off) just released a nice new pamphlet that simply explains some of the science behind climate change.  See his new related post here and a low-rez PDF (1.7Mb) of his awesome talk last month at the University of Queensland.

On the question of human caused global warming, there’s not just a consensus of scientists – there’s a consensus of evidence. Our understanding of climate doesn’t come from a single line of evidence. We use multiple sets of measurements, using independent methods, to further our understanding. – John Cook

Also see other wonderful resources at skeptical science including the huge list of global warming links and skeptic arguments.  The current number one argument is “It’s the sun”.

Good news for the GBR story on ABC’s AM show

Read and hear the full story here.

Report finds some good news for Great Barrier Reef

Sarah Clarke reported this story on Saturday, June 12, 2010 08:15:00

ELIZABETH JACKSON: After facing what appeared to be a gloomy outlook, there’s finally some good news for the Great Barrier Reef.

After a hot summer, and a series of heatwaves last year, scientists say late monsoonal conditions protected much of the coral from a major bleaching event.

But a new study shows mortality in the world’s tropical oceans is increasing, and as bleaching becomes more common, corals simply aren’t getting enough time to recover.

Our environment reporter Sarah Clarke travelled to the Great Barrier Reef for this report.

SARAH CLARKE: 2009 may have been the second warmest year on record, ending the hottest decade in a century, but that heat didn’t translate to ocean temperatures, with a trough delivering last minute respite for much of Australia’s oceans.

Ray Berkelmans is from the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

RAY BERKELMANS: Thankfully, just around Christmas time the active monsoon trough started and that persisted for just about most of the summer.

So together with high cloud cover and strong winds, that kept us from getting warm conditions for most of the summers.

SARAH CLARKE: Those cooler conditions chilled the ocean, protecting much of the Great Barrier Reef. There was some mild bleaching recorded in the southern region but the worst was further north.

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is from the University of Queensland.

OVE HOEGH-GULDBERG: Right up in northern Australia, you know, in the Torres Strait region you had extremely warm weather for a very long period of time; that pushed sea temperatures above the long term summer maximum by several degrees, and of course that’s what drove bleaching.

SARAH CLARKE: Bleaching occurs when coral’s stress in unusually warmer waters. The worst events in Australia were recorded in 1998 and 2002. Some parts of the Great Barrier Reef have since recovered, but there has been some coral mortality.

And a study by John Bruno from the University of North Carolina now shows between one and two per cent of the world’s tropical corals are being lost each year.

JOHN BRUNO: Well Sarah, we’ve seen coral reefs degrading over the last three or four decades. So we don’t have a lot of data from the late 60s and the early 70s, but we’re quite sure things started really taking off in the early to mid 80s.

So our best guess is that we’ve lot about half of the world’s living coral cover over the last three or four decades.

SARAH CLARKE: That’s combined with new research which suggests that it can take some corals up to 18 months to recover. And as bleaching events become more common, some species won’t have enough time to rebuild.

And that translates to a grim outlook for unique places like the Great Barrier Reef, according to Ove Hoegh-Guldberg from the University of Queensland.

OVE HOEGH-GULDBERG: Now, you can never say from one season to the next that the next year is going to be a mass bleaching event, but what we’re seeing is that that overall risk is increasing over time as the temperature goes up.

You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to work out that, you know, 30 to 40 years from now we’ve lost most of the coral that we have here today, and that’s why a lot of us are very concerned.

New estimates double rate of oil flowing into gulf

UPDATE: see more coverage of this on climate progress plus two bonus videos:  the iconic “you’re gonna need a bigger boat” scene from Jaws and “Jaws in 60 seconds”.

The New York Times is reporting (here) that new estimates virtually double the rate that oil is thought to be flowing into the gulf.

A government panel on Thursday essentially doubled its estimate of how much oil has been spewing from the out-of-control BP well, with the new calculation suggesting that an amount equivalent to theExxon Valdez disaster could be flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.

The new estimate is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. That range, still preliminary, is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

These new calculations came as the public wrangling between BP and the White House was reaching new heights, with President Obama asking for a meeting with BP executives next week and his Congressional allies intensifying their pressure on the oil giant to withhold dividend payments to shareholders until it makes clear it can and will pay all its obligations from the spill.

The higher estimates will affect not only assessments of how much environmental damage the spill has done but also how much BP might eventually pay to clean up the mess — and it will most likely increase suspicion among skeptics about how honest and forthcoming the oil company has been throughout the catastrophe.

The new estimate is based on information that was gathered before BP cut a pipe called a riser on the ocean floor last week to install a new capture device, an operation that some scientists have said may have sharply increased the rate of flow. The government panel, called the Flow Rate Technical Group, is preparing yet another estimate that will cover the period after the riser was cut.

The new estimate appears to be a far better match than earlier ones for the reality that Americans can see every day on their televisions. Even though the new capture device is funneling 15,000 barrels of oil a day to a ship at the surface, a robust flow of oil is still gushing from the well a mile beneath the waves.

The question of how much oil is pouring into the gulf has been a nagging one for weeks, especially since early estimates from BP and the government proved woefully low. And the new estimates come as the company, after weeks of failed efforts, is enjoying its first substantial success at preventing a significant volume of oil from entering the gulf.

The new numbers are certain to ratchet up the already intense political pressure on BP.

For days Mr. Obama and his advisers have fended off questions about why he has not spoken with the chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward. The president’s commander for the spill response, Adm. Thad W. Allen of the Coast Guard, wrote on Thursday to the chairman of the BP board, Carl-Henric Svanberg, requesting that he and “any appropriate officials from BP” meet with administration officials next Wednesday. Mr. Obama will participate in part of the meeting, he wrote.

Jackie Calmes contributed reporting from Washington, and Graham Bowley and Liz Robbins from New York.

Pelicans and oil don’t mix

Pelicans are my favorite birds and among my favorite animals.  Seeing them covered in oil really sucks.

I think these images are every bit as disturbing as those Chris Jorden took at Midway island last year of dead albatross chicks choked by plastic they were fed by their mothers (here).

Brown Pelicans were once greatly reduced in numbers and threatened by DDT spraying, which reduced the thickness of their egg shells.  The national DDT ban facilitated a largely successful recovery.

Before I went to grad school, I worked for the Conservancy in Naples Florida and mainly did pelican rehab; we rescued pelicans and other birds that were injured by fishing lines, hit by golf balls, etc.  We used to number their bills with nail polish to tell them apart.  I was always struck by how much their personality varied among individuals.  Some were cranky and aggressive, some were calm and mild.

Lisen to the NPR story about the effects of the spill on pelicans here.

One of the many ways rich countries are going to try to weasel out of truly reducing emissions

Hat tip to Dr Elvira Poloczanska of CSIRO of Marine Climate Change Report Card for Australia fame (among other things).

From the BBC (here)

By Richard Black, ,Environment correspondent, BBC News, Bonn

Rich countries accused of carbon ‘cheating’

Russia, Australia, Canada and some EU countries are among the accused.

The rules relate to land-use change, which can either release or absorb carbon, depending mainly on whether forests are planted or chopped down.

Rich countries, apart from the US, could account for about 5% of their annual emissions through this loophole.

The US is not involved in these negotiations because the proposals fall under the Kyoto Protocol, of which it – alone among developed countries – is not a part.

By way of comparison, 5% is roughly equal to the total emissions reduction that developed countries pledged to make between 1990 and 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol.

The benefit for some countries, notably Russia, would be much greater.

“This would allow developed countries to circumvent their obligations on reducing emissions,” said Melanie Coath, climate change policy office with the UK’s Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), who has conducted analytical work on the draft text currently being negotiated.

“These are double standards that make us question the legitimacy of the whole process,” added Kevin Conrad, lead negotiator for Papua New Guinea and chairman of the Coalition for Rainforest Nations.

“If rich states tell us we have to adopt robust standards (for REDD) and then use forestry as their biggest get-out clause – it’s double standards, it’s climate fraud.”

Diplomats from developing countries have also criticised the proposals, which are under discussion during a fortnight of talks in Bonn under the UN climate convention (UNFCCC).

Some have suggested that rich countries would operate their forestry sectors under looser accounting rules than developing nations would face under the REDD mechanism (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation).

‘Fudge’ packet

Several different “fudges” are up for discussion in the draft text that would create the 5% (or 500 megatonnes of CO2) loophole.

One would allow countries to measure emission reductions or increases against a “forward-looking baseline”.

In other words, a country would decide how its land-use carbon emission or absorption would be likely to change in future, and then to measure actual performance against that baseline.

By contrast, developed nations have to measure emissions from every other sector of their economies simply for what they are – against a zero baseline.

– A second proposal, from Russia, would mean that countries would not have to count emissions from land-use change until land-use changes across the entire country resulted in net emissions.

Currently, Russia’s land-use sector is a big net absorber.

In addition, each governments could decide which aspects of land use change to include in its emission reports – which it would then compile and submit to the UN.

Delegates from some EU countries have suggested that others with large areas of forest – such as Austria, Finland and Sweden – are pushing for lax regulation, along with Russia and Australia.

But the European Commission’s chief negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, said the EU favoured tighter rules.

“Certainly from the EU side, what we want to see is a system where we have the highest environmental integrity that is possible,” he told BBC News.

“And also we don’t want to have rules tighter for developing countries than for developed countries.”

The UN talks here are due to conclude on Friday, and to set out some goalposts as governments look to the next UN climate summit in Cancun, Mexico, at the end of the year.

Small island states and many of the world’s poorest nations are demanding that Cancun must see agreement of a legally binding global treaty, but many others are pushing for a “bottom-up” approach that would seek small but concrete agreements in key areas such as REDD.

Some rich countries are seeking new rules under the UN climate convention, which campaigners say would allow them to gain credit for “business as usual”.

Oil exploration threatens reefs in Belize

As if the timing couldn’t be any worse, the Belize government has issued permits for oil exploration on the Belizean portion of the Meso-American reef in Central America.

See more on this here, here and here this press release just issued by WWF:

Potential Belize Offshore Oil Exploration threatens Coral Reef Health

BELIZE.- World Wildlife Fund (WWF) expressed great concern with news indicating that the Government of Belize has granted concessions to explore for oil and natural gas both offshore and on-shore.

Apparently, 18 concessions have been granted by the Belize Geology and Petroleum Department of which 8 are within the territorial waters of Belize. If true, this may generate potential risks for Belize’s barrier reef and the wider Mesoamerican Reef. WWF is particularly concerned that, apparently, concessions have been granted to carry out exploration within Belize’s marine protected areas including World Heritage Sites, and most of the terrestrial natural protected areas.

The Mesoamerican Reef covers nearly 115 million acres, from the northern end of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico and the Caribbean coasts of Belize and Guatemala, to the Bay Islands in northern Honduras.

Belize is a well known tourist destination, with large numbers of tourists flocking to its mainland and insular coast each year to dive or snorkel on its coral reefs, among other activities. In 2009 only, Belize received a total of 937,468 tourists (overnight and cruise tourism combined). An independent World Resources Institute (WRI) study found that Belize’s shoreline mangrove and coral reef system contributes between US$150-196 million a year only in tourism and recreation activities and represent between 12 and 15% of total country GDP. Its contribution to coastal protection was estimated to be around US$ 231-347 million. Belize depends on tourism as the primary economic motor. Compromising the integrity of ecosystems, quality of environmental services and landscape values can seriously damage the sector and the nation’s economy.

In WWF’s view, promoting oil and natural gas exploration within the Belize portion of the Mesoamerican Reef significantly increases the risks this fragile system already faces due to anthropogenic factors such as unsustainable coastal development, unsustainable fisheries and pollution.

WWF invites the Government of Belize to engage all actors in reviewing the need of such concessions, the risks associated to Belize’s diverse and rich marine resources and consider other economic alternatives for sustainable development and economic growth. WWF has been productively working with the Government of Belize and many environmental partners for many years, is most willing to continue working with the relevant authorities and offers its support in building an open, participatory, and transparent and scientifically based strategy for the sustainable development of the Mesoamerican Reef and the benefit of all its people and ecosystems.

As our region lives through one of the worst oil-related catastrophes the world has ever witnessed, and around 800,000 gallons of oil drain daily into the Gulf of Mexico with no end in sight, the urgency to find alternatives other than oil and gas production in the Mesoamerican Reef region are more than ever evident.

Skeptically speaking: question everything.

Here’s a great interview with the (near legendary!) John Cook, the man behind the scenes at Skeptical Science. Here’s what John has to say:

Skeptically Speaking is a fantastic radio show with the slogan “Question everything”. Hosted by Desiree Shell (and with a catchy jingle, note to Doug Moutal), the show is committed to the skepticism community (by skepticism, they mean a basis on scientific evidence, not misinformation or ideology). Last Sunday, they aired a show, The Evidence for Climate Change, featuring an interview with myself. You can download the whole show straight from the website or subscribe to the Skeptically Speaking podcast (I know I have, can’t get enough science podcasts).

The interview goes for nearly 40 minutes where they throw a bunch of global warming skeptic arguments at me: the sun, Climategate, the hockey stick, ice age predictions in the 1970s, the difference between weather and climate, extreme weather and so on. I also managed to slip in “Human CO2 is tiny” as it was still fresh in my head after last week’s podcast. Hopefully it’s worth a listen and I recommend adding Skeptically Speaking to your list of podcasts.

Here’s a link to the audio:

[audio:http://www.skepticallyspeaking.com/podcasts/Skeptically_Speaking_062_Evidence_For_Climate_Change.mp3]

Blogging on climate change – a job for the brave

Here’s a great piece by Graham Redfearn in CSIRO‘s sustainability magazine ECOS about science and blogging on climate change, with opinion from Tim Lambert (Deltoid) and John Cook (Skeptical Science):

As a journalist for the Courier-Mail in Brisbane, I started the GreenBlog in June 2008 to give readers a more in-depth perspective on environmental issues, especially climate change. By the time I quit that blog in February 2010, I had written more than 650 posts, moderated about 14 000 comments, blogged live with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, hosted guest posts from ministers and published a Q&A with former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
I had also monitored the countless daily conversations between the likes of ‘polyaux’,‘sherlock’,‘badboybenny’and ‘PhilM’. I also incurred the wrath of the religious right in the United States who were not too happy with me for writing about a CSIRO scientist who had recommended the use of low-energy Christmas lights!

Blogs are hugely influential in communicating climate change. They are nimble and cheap to run, and they get news, information and new research out fast. Unfortunately, they are also being used to push populist unsubstantiated arguments around the globe quicker than you can say ‘Himalayan glaciers’, ‘climategate’ or ‘Al Gore’. Everyone from world leading climate scientists at NASA to fossil-fuel lobbyists, journalists, politicians, campaigners, activists and countless other global citizens are writing thousands of posts every day. Unfortunately, some of the most popular blogs have misrepresented the science – sometimes innocently and sometimes not.

However, some scientists are taking up this communication challenge. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, started his blog Climate Shifts after seeing a ‘growing distortion of the information’. He says: ‘Some of this is simply a consequence of online “experts” being ill informed, while others stem from a well- organised and well-funded disinformation campaign proliferated by special-interest groups who, for example, do not want action on human-driven climate change.’

Tim Lambert, a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales, has seen his blog Deltoid rise to become one of the most popular science-based blogs on the planet. ‘Journalists are generalists and not experts and it is very hard for them to get everything right,’ he says. ‘The problem is worse in technical and scientific areas and even worse in an area like climate science where many people want to believe that the scientists have it wrong. ‘Before blogs, I might have complained to a colleague or written a letter to the editor, but in my blog I can explain exactly what they got wrong and provide links to original sources.’
Another Australian-based blog to make global waves is Skeptical Science, created by John Cook, a University of Queensland physics graduate. In recent months, his blog, which uses peer-reviewed science to explore misconceptions about climate change, has been featured on the websites of the Guardian and the New York Times. ‘I’m trying to inform people in everyday language what the peer-reviewed science is telling us about climate change – both through the blog and a free iPhone app we have released.’ The iPhone app is designed to give instant science-based answers to queries on climate change and has been described by one World Wildlife Fund Canada blogger as a ‘pocket-sized miracle’.
‘I have a 10-year-old daughter,’ says Cook. ‘The latest science tells me she’ll see 1 to 2 metres of sea level rise in her lifetime. I want to be able to look her in the eye when I’m an old man and say that although my generation dithered on acting on climate change, at least I tried to change things. That motivates me.’