Opposing viewpoints: Freeman Dyson & Alun Anderson

Freeman Dyson: My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models. (Read more)


Alun Anderson: Knowing that Arctic climate models are imperfect, it would be reassuring for me, if not for the scientists, to be able to write that scientists keep making grim predictions that just that don’t come true. If that were so, we could follow Dyson’s line that the models aren’t so good and "the fuss is exaggerated". Scarily, the truth is the other way around. The ice is melting faster than the grimmest of the scientist’s predictions, and the predictions keep getting grimmer. Now we are talking about an Arctic free of ice in summer by 2040. That’s a lot of melting given that, in the long, dark winter the ice covers an area greater than that of the entire United States. (Read More)

 

Universe-wide climate change?

As others in the blog world have picked up: four of Australia’s coalition MP’s raised doubts about the consensus that humans are causing climates change. Whilst this in itself is nothing new, the interesting aspect is their justification:

The four backbenchers have questioned the link between human activity and global warming, saying Mars, Jupiter, Pluto and Neptune are also warming up.

Nuclear physicist and West Australian MP Denis Jensen, former ministers and NSW backbenchers Jackie Kelly and Danna Vale, and Northern Territory MP Dave Tollner say the hypothesis of “anthropogenic" or human created global warming was based on theoretical models and unproven economic assumptions. (The Australian)

I have to say, using Astronomy to cloud the issue is a new one to me.

"Climate change is a natural phenomenon that has always been with us and always will be," they said in a document challenging the findings of a cross-party parliamentary report looking at carbon capture options for Australia.

"It is the natural property of planets with fluid envelopes to have variability in climate. Thus, at any given time, we may expect about half the planets to be warming. This has nothing to do with human activities," the four said. (Reuters Article)

Novel, fascinating but unsupported by science. And what these four backbenchers don’t explain to us is why our world hasn’t been warming at the current rate for millions of years (and why it is now) or why all the hundreds of other pieces of evidence presented in the 4th assessment report from the IPCC are wrong. Granted, that may take some time.

I wonder what it must be like to have political representation from someone with this level of insight? I must say, you’d have to be a bit worried!

WWF: Reef or Rubble?

From this morning’s Sydney Morning Herald

(Link to article, Link to WWF) :

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August 10th, 2007

AT LEAST $300 million needs to be spent urgently to clean up millions of tonnes of mud and chemical pollution pouring into the Great Barrier Reef every year, to boost the reef’s immunity to climate change, according to a new report from WWF.

The Federal Government had to act now to give the reef its best chance of avoiding future degradation, the environment group said. Its assessment comes before the release of a federal report widely believed to show a dramatic increase in pollution levels in Queensland rivers and creeks feeding into the reef.

Reefs worldwide are under threat. A University of North Carolina study published on Wednesday said large-scale degradation of the world’s coral reefs was much worse than previously thought. Over the past two decades, coral had disappeared at five times the rate of the planet’s rainforests, it said.

WWF said more than 90 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef’s pollution came from soil, hazardous chemicals and pesticides washing off farms and sugarcane plantations.

“We are creating a milkshake in the reef that is feeding the larvae of crown-of-thorns starfish,” said Nick Heath, of WWF-Australia.

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Little room for doubt: IPCC working group II reports

unep.jpgThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the most reliable consensus on the science of climate change – has released the full report of Working group II (Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability). The conclusions of this heavily reviewed and objective scientific consensus are that ‘Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.’

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The “GBR Swindle” comes round one last time

Dr Pete Ridd has responded to my latest response to his comments. Given that he raises a few issues of fact, I think it is useful to explore his conjectures point by point in a final post. Some of these conjectures are easily dispelled which I think will be useful to the wider audience. I do think, however, that we will draw the line under the "Swindle" issue after this post. Continue reading

8 million year old bacteria from glacial ice revived

An interesting article from the Falkowski lab at Rutgers university has just been released in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . The authors extracted bacteria and DNA from ice between 3-5 metres beneath the surface of an Antarctic glacier, and ‘resuscitated’ a strain of bacteria 8 million years in age. Previously, the oldest record of DNA extracted from glacial ice was 800,000 years old, from the southern Greenland icesheet.The following comment from Falkoswki in a New Scientist article in particular caught my eye:

 

"Paul Falkowski of Rutgers University, who led the study, describes the ancient bacteria as small round cells that had been in a "suspended state of animation for 8 million years". He says the increasingly rapid flow of glaciers into the ocean as a result of global warming could release new organisms into the sea but he does not believe this is cause for concern because marine bacteria and viruses are typically far less harmful to human health than, for instance, those found on land."

A Bolt out of the blue.

As I was quoted in The Australian this weekend in a piece entitled “Coral bleaching as record cold snap hits” (and have blogged here earlier on several occasions), cold weather across southern Queensland has resulted in coral bleaching in the exposed reef flats in the Capricorn Bunker group and the Keppell Islands (as confirmed by a CSIRO oceanographer, David Griffin).

No sooner than this was published, Andrew Bolt, an Op-Ed writer for the Herald Sun took dislike to the published comment: “Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said the extreme variation in temperature might be more common as climate change caused hotter summers and colder winters”.

Welcome back from vacation, Andrew. I must say, I have missed you.

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European heatwaves have doubled since 1880

A new study in the Journal of Geophysical Research has some interesting implications for climate shifts in Europe (link to journal article). The dataset comes from 54 daily maximum temperature series from around Europe (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom). According to the authors, after correcting for bias, between 1880 and 2005, the length of summer heat waves over western Europe has doubled and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled. Continue reading

Mass coral bleaching off Okinawa

Yossie Loya - bleaching It would seem that the beautiful reefs of Okinawa in Japan are experiencing stress again. In 1998, large areas of these unique Japanese reef systems bleached and died. Let us hope that this is not about to happen again. Here is a story that just appeared in the Yomiuri Shimbun (August 5) . Picture by Professor Yossi Loya (1998 bleaching event in Okinawa)

Large swaths of coral off islands around Okinawa Prefecture have been turning white due to a phenomenon known as coral bleaching–a sign that the coral is dying. This phenomenon has been sighted for the first time in four years in locations in the prefecture such as the coast around Ishigakijima island, which boasts the country’s largest coral reef, and is thought have been brought on by high water temperatures in July.

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Sea anenome genomics

Whilst not strictly related to climate change, a fascinating study on sea anemome genome recently published in the journal Science is well worth mentioning (link to article, link to news story). Researchers studying the DNA sequence of the starlet sea anemone (Nematostella vectensis) – typically considered a “simple” organism with no central nervous system, simple receptors and a shared mouth / anus (Phylum Cnidaria, mostly marine organisms including corals and jellyfish) – revealed remarkable similarities with vertebrate DNA.

When examining the anemone genome for 283 human genes involved in human diseases, 226 were present in the anemone DNA. The evolutionary implications of this are vast – and surprising, too, when considered that the anemone genome may reveal more about the evolution of humans than any other closely related organisms.