More climate delusionism and questionable science

Poor Bob. Looks like no-one is taking him seriously these days, according to a recent post over at Jennifer Marohasy’s blog:

“PROMINENT scientists with long publications records, such as Bob Carter, are routinely described by the media as not being climate scientists and really not reputable scientists at all if they aren’t on the alarmist bandwagon”

On his website, Bob defines himself as a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist”. A quick search of the Web of Science database for publications shows that RM Carter has indeed had a pretty prolific career for a scientist since 1970, publishing 74 papers in scientific journals. The vast number of these are indeed focused on Bob’s background – geology and stratigraphy. But how would this qualify Bob to be a ‘climate scientist’? The vast majority of Bob’s claims of  ‘expertise’ seems to come in the form of opinion pieces, letters to newspaper editors and media relationships (warning of ‘Global Cooling‘, or giving lectures on ‘the myth of dangerous human-caused climate change’). There’s a reason no-one will take Bob Carter seriously – his ‘long publication record’ doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, and there is a complete lack of understanding or science to back up the majority of his anti climate change statements. In other words, take his opinion pieces (such as the usual crap published in ‘quadrant’ magazine) with a pinch of salt.

Speaking of other paid shills, it seems that the Brisbane Institute is trying it’s best to lose all credibility by inviting the infamous Jay Lehr to give a seminar on climate change:

The Brisbane Institute is holding a public seminar featuring Dr Jay Lehr, Science Director of the Heartland Institute, whose visit to Australia is being hosted by the Australian Climate Science Coalition.

If the Heartland Institute sounds familiar, this is the same institute that set about to muddy the waters in the Tobacco debate as funded by tobacco lobbyists (Phillip Morris), and sets up annual “International Conferences on Climate Change” to promote dubious science as funded by Exxon. Spot the paid agenda? Here’s what the Brisbane Institute has to say on Jay Lehr:

Dr Lehr is a powerful, entertaining speaker who focuses on describing the impact of advancing technologies on the local, regional, national, and global economy.  An economist and futurist, Dr Lehr combines five decades of expertise and experience in agricultural economics, agronomy, environmental science and business administration with great enthusiasm for the future.

He has spoken to hundreds of groups, seminars, major news networks, radio programs and has written nineteen books to dispel what he believes are the unfair and inaccurate claims made by environmental advocacy groups.  Dr Lehr is an economist and environmental scientist who believes that the course of action provided under the CPRS Bill is a folly, which Australians should reject.

Doing a little digging, it seems that Jay Lehr is a self proclaimed internationally renowned speaker, scientist and author who has published over 900 journal articles. 900! Seem incredible? Too incredible to be true – at best I could find 25 (16 as first author). Most of these are focused upon mainly on ground and waste water, and several of them appear to be in questionable journals (Texas Banking, Proceedings of the National Waste Processing Conference amongst other highlights). Unsurprisingly, none of them are related to climate change. He’s also published a few books of little relevance (my favourite is “Fit, Firm & 50 A Fitness Guide for Men and Women over 40“).

Lehr proclaims to have “…on 36 occasions has testified in congress to explain the realities of environmental issues as it related to pending legislation”. What you won’t find on his webpage is that Lehr is actually a convicted felon in the US, imprisoned by the US government and fired from several positions / associations for defrauding the EPA! So exactly where is the evidence that Lehr is either an economist or environmental scientist, or that his opinion on climate change is worth a damn? Either way, i’m sure The Australian newspaper will have a field day given their complete lack of objectivity and balanced reporting (read here for more). I’ll sign off this post with words from my colleague John Quiggin, who untill a few weeks ago was an active supporter of the Brisbane Institute:

Even judged against the low bar set by climate delusionists in general, the Heartland Institute is a disgrace. Its most notable achievement was the publication of a list purporting to be of scientists whose work contradicted mainstream climate science. Such lists, common in the delusionists attempts to deny that they are pushing fringe science, usually contain large numbers of name with few or no relevant qualifications. The Heartland list was different. It contained the names of lots of genuine scientists, but misrepresented their position. Even when scientists protested against this misrepresentation, Heartland refused to take their names off the list on the basis that they (a bunch of rightwing hacks with no qualifications whatsoever) were better placed to interpret the results of scientific research than were the authors of that research.

The Heartland Institute has no legitimate place in public life and anyone who works for or with it brands themselves as a charlatan. It is to be hoped that the Brisbane Institute’s decision to promote Heartland’s lies is the result of a negligent failure to check on the credibility of their speakers rather than a decision to legitimise this body.

Monbiot succeeds in moving heaven and earth

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Since the release of Professor Ian Plimer‘s book titled ‘Heaven and Earth‘ was published, a number of reputable scientists and authors including Tim Lambert, Ian Enting, Barry Brook, Michael Ashley, David Karoly, Kurt Lambeck and Charlie Veron have taken the book to task, pointing out a multitude of issues ranging from deliberate misquotes, paraphrasing journal articles and deliberately falsifying graphs. George Monbiot, a journalist with the british newspaper The Guardian summarised Plimer’s efforts:

“…seldom has a book been more cleanly murdered by scientists than Ian Plimer’s Heaven and Earth, which purports to show that manmade climate change is nonsense. Since its publication in Australia it has been ridiculed for a hilarious series of schoolboy errors, and its fudging and manipulation of the data.”

Since then, Monbiot has consistently (and correctly) attacked Plimer on the falsehoods of his book on his blog at the Guardian, which culimanated in Plimer challenging Monbiot to a public debate. Monbiot agreed to this, with the condition that Plimer first respond to the detailed critique as previously outlined (see ‘Why can’t the champion of climate change denial face the music‘ for the ensuing hilarity). Unsurprisingly, Plimer has rejected this challenge, although Monbiot doesn’t say why. Read the full article here (“Let battle commence! Climate change denialist ready for the fight“). I can only hope that Plimer does his best to answer the list of questions, as it would be entertaining to watch Monbiot nail Plimer to a wall… More updates as they come.

Climate change and coral reefs: Trojan horse or false prophecy?

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Ove is too shy and modest to say so, but he just published a critical response to a provocative  article by Maynard et al. (2009).  He also blogged about this episode here and here.  Ill paste the abstract below and also an excerpt.  The full article is hidden behind Springer’s Corporate Wall of Greed.  But if you want the full paper write Ove, Jez or me.  The debate goes on…

O. Hoegh-Guldberg (2008) Climate change and coral reefs: Trojan horse or false prophecy? A response to Maynard et al. Coral Reefs (2009) 28:569–575

Abstract Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) claim that much of the concern about the impacts of climate change on coral reefs has been “based on essentially untested assumptions regarding reefs and their capacity to cope with future climate change”. If correct, this claim has important implications for whether or not climate change represents the largest long-term threat to the sustainability of coral reefs, especially given their ad hominem argument that many coral reef scientists are guilty of “popularising worst-case scenarios” at the expense of truth. This article looks critically at the claims made by Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 27:745–749, 2008a) and comes to a very different conclusion, with the thrust and veracity of their argument being called into question. Contrary to the fears of Grigg (Coral Reefs 11:183–186, 1992), who originally made reference to the Cassandra syndrome due to his concern about the sensationalisation of science, the proposition that coral reefs face enormous challenges from climate change and ocean acidification has and is being established through “careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation”. While this is reassuring, coral reef ecosystems continue to face major challenges from ocean warming and acidification. Given this, it is an imperative that scientists continue to maintain the rigour of their research and to communicate their conclusions as widely and clearly as possible. Given the shortage of time and the magnitude of the problem, there is little time to spare.

…many scientists are warning of the consequences for key ecosystems such as coral reefs if we continue down the pathway of unrestrained growth in atmospheric CO2 (Glynn 1996; Brown 1997; Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007; IPCC 2007). Grigg (1992) warned of the need to explore the issues associated with coral bleaching and global warming using ‘‘careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation’’. Contrary to the opinion of Maynard et al. (2008a), this has been the modus operandi and our understanding of the drivers and the impacts associated with global climate change has made impressive and rigorous progress over the past 15 years. While more research is certainly needed to fill the gaps and uncertainties with respect to how the next few decades and century will unfold, there is little support for the conclusion that coral reefs will survive atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of 600–1000 ppm and increases in ocean temperatures of 2–6_C. For this reason, and the fact that we are currently on a pathway headed towards 1,000 ppm and beyond, we must also strive to communicate the extreme urgency of the situation to the broader scientific and non-science community, and to urge the international community to rein in the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This will take measures that go far beyond those that have been proposed so far by the international community and will only come about if governments understand the dire circumstances that the world faces if we lose coral reefs and other critically important parts of the biosphere. Hopefully, a clear, objective and coherent voice from the coral reef community will be listened to. We can only hope.

The future of coral reefs and the human communities that depend on them

Leading Australian scientists today released the following call for action to save the world’s coral reefs, at a scientific symposium in Brisbane:

  • Coral reefs are irreplaceable and far too valuable for human societies to allow their continued destruction. It is a moral imperative that coral reefs are not simply abandoned as an overly fragile casualty of the world’s appetite for coal and oil. Reefs are threatened, not doomed – if we can take steps to avoid extreme climate change. We know what to do to maintain healthy reefs, and we should get on with it.
  • Because of their sensitivity to temperature and acidification of oceans, coral reefs are in the front line of the effects of climate change. For reefs, climate change is not some distant threat that might come to pass in the future – scientists and reef managers have already clearly documented the impacts of accelerating climate change on the Great Barrier Reef and elsewhere around the world. The evidence is irrefutable.
  • Without targeted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the ongoing damage to coral reefs from global warming will soon be irreversible. Substantial global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions must be initiated immediately, not in 10 or 20 years.
  • Substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are consistently with steadily improving living standards in both developed and developing countries. The best estimate of the change in the rate of economic growth associated with a program to hold the change in global temperature below 2 degrees C over the next century is less than 0.1 percentage points.
  • The coral reef crisis represents a policy and governance failure. Improved outcomes for reefs will require unprecedented coordination and integration across jurisdictions. People from developing countries who are highly dependent on reefs for their livelihood are the most vulnerable to change. Australia’s support for the Coral Triangle Initiative and for Pacific Nations, represents a sound approach that combines conservation objectives with sustainable development. These efforts need to be much better supported by all governments.
  • In many places, we need to move beyond the usual measures to involve communities in conservation- things like consultation, participation, and compensation. We need to understand the social, cultural, political and economic conditions the same way we understand ecological conditions such as the types of corals and fish in a park.  In some areas, the capacity of communities to cope with change will have to be built up, which will require donors and governments to make real and meaningful investments  in poverty alleviation, education, and reducing dependence on coral reef resources.
  • Development aid, particularly for education, capacity-building and alternative livelihoods will increase the capacity coral-reef nations to adapt to climate change. The higher the level of education and the broader the range of economic prospects available to people, the greater the appeal of long-term management for sustainability, as opposed to extraction of resources to meet immediate demands for survival.
  • The world has a narrow window of opportunity to save coral reefs from the destruction of extreme climate change. Local action can help to re-build the resilience of reefs, and promote their recovery from coral bleaching. It is critically important to prevent the replacement of corals by algal blooms, by reducing runoff from land and by protecting stocks of herbivorous fishes. However, reefs cannot be “climate-proofed” except via reduced emissions of greenhouse gasses.

SeaSponge SmartPants

barrel_sponge_ngDr Bernie Degnan and his team have been sequencing the genome of the simple sea sponge here at the University of Queensland and have made some pretty astonishing findings in regards to humans and stem cells:

[http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/200908/20090805-twt-11-amazing-sponge.mp3]

CARLY LAIRD: For anyone who thought the cartoon character, SpongeBob SquarePants, was a bit far fetched, think again. Bernie Degnan is a professor of marine biology at the University of Queensland. He says although sea sponges certainly can’t talk and don’t have their own apartments under the sea, they are indeed clever marine animals.

BERNIE DEGNAN: Sponges just by their natural biology do things that we only wish we can engineer in a biomedical laboratory.

CARLY LAIRD: Professor Degnan and his colleagues have just completed the first genome sequence of the squelchy organisms. They found that sponges are very similar to our own gene make-up.

BERNIE DEGNAN: Turns out this sponge is the first marine organism in Australian waters to have its genome fully sequenced, assembled and annotated which means it’s been analysed to completion.

By having all that genomic information we’ve been able to start to tease apart the ways sponges actually work and funny, try and relate that back to our own condition. So even though sponges and humans have kind of split off from each over at least 600 million years ago, we can find a whole range of molecular characteristics, genes that are shared between sponges and humans.

Blogging from the Galapagos Islands

John Bruno mentioned this in passing at the bottom of his last post (Climate Literacy), but I thought this deserved a post of it’s own. Check out JB’s blog over at his lab website, bought to you live from the Galapagos Islands – shark surveys, coral monitoring, marine iguanas, seals on the rocky intertidal shores… (and who says the life of a marine biologist isn’t at least slightly glamorous?)

“I’ll be working with a team of scientists on San Cristobal island in the Galapagos for a week.  I am blogging about the trip, mainly to share the things I see and do with family and friends back home.  Especially my nature-crazy daughters, my nephew Joey and my friend Zaim (who is already charting a path to being a marine biologist)!

You can ask questions, make comments, complain about the lousy photos and poor grammar, etc. just by clicking “Add a Comment”

Hope you enjoy it – JB”

The Australian Prime Minister takes up blogging

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Good to see the honorable Kevin Rudd has “…decided to kick off my blogging career with a focus on climate change“:

The latest scientific research on climate change confirms our worst fears.  Climate change is happening faster than we previously thought, creating a more serious threat to our economy, our environment and to future generations.

I recently returned from a meeting of leaders of the world’s major developed and developing countries in Italy, where our discussions focused on our global efforts to tackle climate change. This meeting – the Major Economies Forum on Climate and Energy – made some important progress. In particular, it recognised the clear message from climate science that the increase in global average temperature must not exceed 2 degrees celsius. That means the international community is accepting the need for tough long-term targets on reducing carbon emissions.

For anyone not following Australian politics, this is a huge step up from our last Prime Minister John Howard, who somewhat famously said “I accept that climate change is a challenge, I accept the broad theory about global warming. I am sceptical about a lot of the more gloomy predictions” (shortly before he was voted out of office). Great to see mention of our research here, too!

The Great Barrier Reef – one of Australia’s most iconic natural wonders which generates jobs for around 60,000 people and more than $4.9 billion in tourism revenue – is particularly vulnerable to climate change.

7000-year-old corals of Moreton Bay tell their story

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The 7000-year-old coral communities of Moreton Bay are telling a curious tale, expanding when sea-levels rise or water quality improves, then declining when current circulation becomes more restricted.

Intriguing new insights into the behaviour of corals and fish under changing climatic conditions will be presented by leading marine researchers at a public forum in Brisbane this coming Friday.

Professor John Pandolfi from the University of Queensland and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and his team have been dating the corals of Moreton Bay and finding they have undergone surges of growth, probably triggered by subtle changes in sea level and water conditions.

“We’ve found coral communities up to 7000 years old showing these curious growth episodes – the last one started about 400 years ago. When coral reef growth slows or stops in the Bay, it appears to correspond with a decline in the current circulation and an increase in turbidity.”

The team has also found clear evidence of changes in the types of corals in the Bay from the delicate staghorns to more massive forms, coinciding with European settlement and possibly resulting from declining water quality as nearby catchments were altered.

These and many other aspects of the future of Australia’s corals will be explored at a scientific symposium and public forum in Brisbane this week.

The scientific symposium “Securing Coral Reef Futures” will take place on August 6 and 7 at the Brisbane Customs House.

It will be followed by the Public Forum on the future of the coral reefs worldwide at 6.00pm, Friday 7 August at the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre. Media are welcome to attend both.

This and more from the scientific symposium “Securing Coral Reef Futures” here in Brisbane on the 6th and 7th August, including seminars by Dr Morgan Pratchett (adaptability of fish to ocean acidification and coral loss),Professor Garry Ryss (GBR Marine parks and fisheries stocks), and Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (coral reefs, mangrove forests and global food security). Anyone is welcome to join the Public Forum on the future of the coral reefs worldwide at 6.00pm, Friday 7 August at the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre (click here for more details).

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Climate Literacy

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There is a great article on the Earth Forum about Climate Literacy.  The permanant link is here and an expanded version of the article (titled the Climate Literacy Handook) is here (in the Encyclopedia of Earth).  Ill exerpt some of the short version below.  Also check our the Coral Reefs collection at the EoE here.

This handbook presents the basic scientific concepts of climate science for non-technical audiences. It is an elaboration of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, a set of seven principles and their underlying fundamental concepts that developed by scientists and educators. This set of principles has been reviewed and endorsed by the  U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Commentary and online resources follow each principle, allowing further exploration of key climate literacy concepts. The handbook aims to promote greater climate science literacy by providing an educational framework around the Essential Principles of Climate Science.

A climate-literate person:

  • understands the essential principles of Earth’s climate system,
  • knows how to assess scientifically credible information about climate,
  • communicates about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and
  • is able to make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate

Why does climate science literacy Matter?

  • During the 20th century, Earth’s globally averaged surfacetemperature rose by approximately 1.08°F (0.6°C). Additional warming of more than 0.25°F (0.14°C) has been measured since 2000. Though the total increase may seem small, it likely represents an extraordinarily rapid rate of change compared to changes in the previous 10,000 years.
  • Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth’s temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security.
  • Scientific observations and climate model results indicate that human activities are now the primary cause of most of the ongoing increase in Earth’s globally averaged surface temperature.

The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy

  1. Principle 1. The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth’s climate system.
  2. Principle 2. Climate is regulated by complex interactions among components of the Earth system.
  3. Principle 3. Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and affects climate.
  4. Principle 4. Climate varies over space and time through both natural and man-made processes.
  5. Principle 5. Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling
  6. Principle 6. Human activities are impacting the climate system.
  7. Principle 7. Climate change will have consequences for the Earth system and human lives

PS-sorry for the absence.  I was working on San Cristobal Island in the Galapagos-a truly stunning place.  There were already signs of the pending El Nino.  If you are interested, I blogged about the trip here.


Climate change poised to feed on itself

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Fifteen of Australia’s top climate experts explain how we know humans are altering the atmosphere and why we must act now.

  1. The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 degrees since 1850, with most of the increase occurring since 1950. The warming varies among decades because of natural fluctuations but the overall trend has been inexorably upward.
  2. The dominant cause of the warming since about 1950 is the increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases released by human activities, of which carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important.
  3. Warming will increase in future, if emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases maintain their present paths. “Business as usual” scenarios for future emissions lead to likely global temperature increases of up to six degrees above present temperatures by 2100.
  4. Climate change cannot be reversed for many centuries, because of the massive heat stores in the world’s oceans. Even if CO2 and other greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised today at their present levels, a further warming of at least 0.6 degrees would inevitably follow (on top of the 0.8 degrees observed since 1850) and sea-level rise would continue for centuries to millenniums.

These four conclusions have been known and agreed among thousands of independent climate scientists for more than a decade. However, new findings suggest that the situation is, if anything, more serious than the assessment of just a few years ago.

Click here to read the full article titled “Climate change poised to feed on itself” published in the Sydney Morning Herald by Michael Raupach and John Church, CSIRO; David Griggs, Amanda Lynch and Neville Nicholls, Monash University; Nathan Bindoff, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre; Matthew England and Andy Pitman, University of NSW; Ann Henderson-Sellers and Lesley Hughes, Macquarie University; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland; Roger Jones, Victoria University; David Karoly, University of Melbourne; and Tony McMichael and Will Steffen, Australian National University.